Global alumina production is increasing, although the drivers behind the rise are more layered than a straightforward growth story might suggest. Smelter-grade alumina output rose from 134.2 million tonnes in 2023 to 136.9 million tonnes in 2024, after which the curve steepened. For 2025, production is expected to reach between 143.3 and 143.6 million tonnes. That represents an increase of nearly seven million tonnes in a single year, translating into a compound growth rate of around 5 per cent. What’s driving it isn’t sudden optimism or a rush of new approvals. It’s backlog. Capacity that had been planned, financed, delayed, and reworked over several years is finally switching on. In many cases, the hard part - construction, permitting, logistics - is already behind operators. What’s left is ramp-up. This supply push is unfolding alongside steady growth in aluminium production, which has kept alumina demand moving in the same direction. AL Circle estimation suggests global SGA demand could reach about 145.2 million tonnes in 2026, with the broader market value approaching 147 million tonnes.
Whether the market absorbs this material smoothly, or faces a surplus - and how any excess would be utilised - is outlined in the Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026.
China: the backbone of global supply
If there is an anchor in the global alumina system, it remains China. Production barely changed between 2019 and 2020, slipping marginally from 70.61 million tonnes to 70.39 million tonnes. That pause didn’t last long. Output climbed to 74.54 million tonnes in 2021 and surged again to 79.62 million tonnes in 2022.
Since then, growth has cooled but not reversed. Production reached 83.17 million tonnes in 2023 and edged up to 85.14 million tonnes in 2024. For 2025, however, the pace is expected to pick up once more, with output forecast at around 91.10 million tonnes close to 7 per cent higher year-on-year.
Some of this increase is concentrated. Chalco alone lifted alumina production from 19.68 million tonnes in 2024 to roughly 21 million tonnes. More broadly, China has kept adding refining capacity at a measured but relentless pace. By September 2025, metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at approximately 110.32 million tonnes. Operating capacity continued to rise month on month, while utilisation hovered just above 80 per cent.
The implication is straightforward: China isn’t just supplying its own smelters. It’s shaping the global surplus.
Australia: output under pressure
Australia, meanwhile, is moving the other way - and not by accident. After peaking at 21.28 million tonnes in 2020, alumina production began to unwind. Output slipped in 2021, dropped more sharply in 2022, and fell again in 2023.
The real damage showed up in 2024, when production declined to 17.59 million tonnes, nearly 8 per cent lower than the previous year. For 2025, output is expected to remain effectively unchanged at around 17.57 million tonnes. In other words, the country isn’t rebounding. It’s stabilising at a lower base.
The reasons are well known inside the industry. Rio Tinto has opted to cut output at its Yarwun refinery by 40 per cent from October 2026, prioritising asset life over volume. Waste storage constraints were a major factor. Building new facilities would require capital outlays that simply don’t stack up under current conditions. Reducing throughput extends operations to 2035 and buys time - but it comes at the cost of tonnes.
In late 2024, Alcoa’s Pinjarra refinery was forced to go offline for about a week after gas supply disruptions, an episode that also led to several caustic spills. More broadly, Western Australia’s gas market remains tight, and the fallout is expected to linger through FY2026.
Then there’s Kwinana, the permanent closure of the 2.2 million tonne-per-year refinery. Economists estimate the shutdown will strip roughly USD 650 million a year from the state economy, cost around 750 jobs, and ripple through hundreds of contractor roles by late 2025.
Production numbers tell the same story. Alcoa’s alumina output fell to 7.16 million tonnes in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 10.03 million tonnes a year earlier. Rio Tinto’s output over the same period dropped to an estimated 5.63 million tonnes, compared with 7.3 million tonnes in 2024. Ageing assets, rising costs, bauxite quality issues, and weak market conditions all played a role.
Margins have been squeezed from both ends. Energy now accounts for as much as 30 - 40 per cent of operating costs, while alumina prices collapsed from USD 805 per tonne in December 2024 to USD 314 per tonne by November 2025. Despite all this, Australia still ranks second globally - but it’s doing so on thinner ice.
To know more about aluminium projects scheduled in 2026 and the market dynamics, prebook our report: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026
How is India quietly reshaping its alumina position?
India’s growth story has been quieter but consistent. Production climbed from 6.59 million tonnes in 2020 to 7.19 million tonnes in 2021, then rose again to 7.72 million tonnes in 2022. Growth slowed in 2023, but it never reversed.
Momentum returned in 2024, when output jumped to 8.63 million tonnes. For 2025, production is estimated at around 8.98 million tonnes - not explosive, but reliable.
That reliability comes from domestic expansion. NALCO has already exceeded last year’s production levels and is on track to deliver roughly 2.3 million tonnes by the end of the current financial year, ahead of target. Its capacity expansion to 3.1 million tonnes per annum by 2027 is progressing steadily.
Vedanta Aluminium has gone further. The expansion at its Lanjigarh refinery has lifted capacity to 5 million tonnes per annum, making it the second-largest alumina facility outside China. India’s total refining capacity now sits close to 13 million tonnes per annum, with Lanjigarh accounting for nearly 40 per cent of that figure. Vedanta’s longer-term ambition of 12 million tonnes of alumina capacity by the early 2030s - underscores how central India is becoming to future supply growth. It is expected to produce 1.97 million tonnes in FY25, up from 1.81 million tonnes in FY24.
Where is the next surge in alumina supply likely to come from?
Brazil is one of the potential producers. Alumina output has hovered around 10 -11 million tonnes for most of the past five years. After easing slightly in 2023, production recovered in 2024 and is expected to reach about 10.86 million tonnes in 2025.
That consistency reflects a mature asset base. Alunorte refinery with nominal capacity of 6.3 million tonnes per year, remains the backbone, while Alumar continues to operate at around 3.5 million tonnes per annum. Hydro is projected at 4.47 million tonnes in 2025 (Q1–Q3 2025), lower than 5.97 million tonnes in 2024.
Indonesia’s trajectory is far steeper. Alumina production is projected to rise from about 3.9 million tonnes in 2024 to 5 -5.5 million tonnes in 2025 and to nearly 17.2 million tonnes by 2032. Multiple greenfield and expansion projects are driving this surge, including PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia, PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara, PT Tianshan Alumina Indonesia, and PT Borneo Alumindo Prima.
Beyond the main producers, other regions are positioning themselves for future growth. Vietnam is scaling up alumina investments through Vinacomin, which plans to invest about USD 7.3 billion in Dak Nong developments, including 2 million tonnes per annum of alumina capacity by 2029. Duc Giang Chemicals Group has proposed a VND 58 trillion (USD 2.2 billion) integrated project in Lam Dong province, targeting 2 million tonnes per annum of alumina and 500,000 tonnes per annum of aluminium, with operations expected between 2031 and 2034.
Guinea plans to commission 5–6 alumina refineries by 2030, with a long-term target of around 7 million tonnes of alumina capacity by 2035, signalling a shift from bauxite exports toward higher-value downstream processing.
What this means for the market
Put it all together and the direction is clear. The global alumina market is slipping into surplus. In 2025 alone, supply is expected to exceed demand by roughly 0.8 -1.1 million tonnes. That imbalance doesn’t disappear in 2026, current estimation of AL Circle point to a global surplus of around 1.2–1.8 million tonnes over the next year. To get the accurate data, visit Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026
China’s expanding refinery base, combined with Indonesia’s rapid capacity build-out and India’s steady additions, is pushing supply ahead of consumption. Several Indonesian projects are already in trial production, with more nearing commissioning.
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