
The US dollar fell to low in one and a half months against a basket of currencies after data showed that US consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders' outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating. Signs of eased trade tension between China and the US, with the potential trade negotiations, also pressured the greenback.
Base metals closed mixed. The LME aluminium contract closed Thursday at US$ 2014.50per tonne. The lower US dollar index pushed LME aluminium up and the contract rose to the highest overnight at US$2,080 per tonne within 40 minutes. Open interests increased 11,110 lots to 684,000 lots. The price is likely to consolidate at US$2,030-2,070 per tonne today.
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As on September 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2013.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2014.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2050 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2051 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2088 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2093 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1051200 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 755750 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 295450 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2048 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange stands flat at US$ 2117 per tonne today from US$ 2116 per tonne on September13.
The SHFE 1811 contract tumbled to a low of RMB 14,495 per tonne from an intraday high of RMB 14,625 per tonne yesterday with pressure above and a lack of momentum. While the contract traded lower from the previous day, it remained above the 60-day moving average. Today morning, the contract stopped its consecutive declines in the last two weeks, and settled 0.45% higher at RMB 14,570 per tonne. It will continue to test pressure at the five-day moving average above and to trade at RMB 14,500-14,650 per tonne today. Spot offers are seen at a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne.
We expect it to rise to test the five- and 40-day moving averages in the short term. Developments in US sanctions on Rusal and Hydro’s alumina refinery in Brazil will be key determinants.
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