Does the Hormuz freeze, hitting 9% global supply, reopen the door for an alternative 5-6 Mt aluminium supplier?
The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, notably a US-Israeli movement involving Iran in early 2026, has sent tremors through global aluminium markets. Gulf-region smelters account for roughly 9 per cent of the world’s primary aluminium supply (and over 20 per cent if China and Russia are excluded). Over 6.16 million tonnes per year of aluminium are produced in the Gulf states, and about 75-80 per cent of that is exported to global consumers.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to shipping, exports from Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf producers have been disrupted, forcing curtailments and raising fears of a major supply squeeze. As one recently published article by S&P Global notes, “trade via the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping corridor for aluminium – has effectively come to a standstill,” driving prices higher and threatening shortages.
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