The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, notably a US-Israeli movement involving Iran in early 2026, has sent tremors through global aluminium markets. Gulf-region smelters account for roughly 9 per cent of the world’s primary aluminium supply (and over 20 per cent if China and Russia are excluded). Over 6.16 million tonnes per year of aluminium are produced in the Gulf states, and about 75-80 per cent of that is exported to global consumers.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to shipping, exports from Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf producers have been disrupted, forcing curtailments and raising fears of a major supply squeeze. As one recently published article by S&P Global notes, “trade via the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping corridor for aluminium – has effectively come to a standstill,” driving prices higher and threatening shortages.

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Gulf production and exports

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – led by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman – host some of the world’s largest aluminium smelters. Emirates Global Aluminium (UAE) alone has 2.7 million tonnes per annum output, and Bahrain’s Alba has 1.6 million tonnes. Qatar’s Qatalum, Oman’s Sohar, and Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden (Ras Al-Khair) add several hundred thousand tonnes each.

The Gulf industry has grown on cheap gas and energy, but it remains largely import-dependent for alumina and carbon anode materials.

Nearly all Gulf aluminium is destined for export. According to industry reports, virtually the majority of Gulf production is shipped out via Hormuz to major markets. In 2025, the GCC accounted for roughly 21 per cent of US primary aluminium imports, 19 per cent of EU primary imports and 25 per cent of Japan’s primary imports, with significant flows also to South Korea, India, Thailand and Turkey.

These flows bring forth regional supply chain dependence. Gulf smelters also produce semi-finished goods (billets, sheet, wire rod) for downstream industries. Gulf refineries import alumina (often from Australia, which supplies 35-40 per cent of global alumina exports) to feed these smelters, making the region doubly dependent on maritime routes.

Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Alcoa, shares that about 4 million tonnes of their alumina move annually to Gulf refineries. With Hormuz closed, much of that redirected supply is now finding a home elsewhere, probably mainly in Asia.

Disruptions from Hormuz closure

With the outbreak of geopolitical tension since late February 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted, heavily disrupting all Gulf exports, including aluminium. Iran’s message to close the strait and assault nearby shipping lanes (including a reported airstrike on Oman’s Port of Salalah) has made passage highly risky.