
According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China imported 39,400 tonnes of primary aluminium in March 2022, which reflected a sharp rise of 115 per cent month-on-month but a downfall of 55.1 per cent year-on-year. In contrast, China’s exports of primary aluminium grew year-on-year by 5571 per cent in March 2022 to 42,300 tonnes and increased by 60 per cent over a month.

In the entire first quarter of 2022 ended March 31, primary aluminium imports totalled 96,600 tonnes, down by 71 per cent year-on-year, while exports amounted to 73,000 tonnes, up by 3017 per cent.
As per SMM’s calculation, 44.8 per cent of primary aluminium was imported under general trade, while another 38.7 per cent was from cargoes under special customs supervision areas. China primarily imported from Russia, India, and Australia this year.
At the end of second quarter, China’s domestic resumed aluminium capacity is expected to continue releasing output, with total operating capacity at 40.6 million tonnes, close to a level in the same period last year. Hence, the demand for imported aluminium ingots will fall sharply. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical crisis and energy shortage may reduce overseas output, which will also lower the aluminium import volume to China.
Since the end of last year, the SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio has been hovering at a low level due to the closure of primary aluminium import window. Till now, the aluminium ingot import loss is close to RMB 2,500 per tonne.
SMM data shows nearly 71,000 tonnes of ordinary aluminium ingots were exported in Q1 this year, most of which were cargoes in special customs supervision area.
In Q2, domestic aluminium output is estimated to exceed the level in the same period last year, but exports are likely to be limited due to restrictions by export tariffs. So, there is not much expectation for a substantial increase in primary aluminium exports. Imports are likely to maintain a year-on-year decline.
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