China's solar capacity is set to surpass coal in 2026

China is approaching a symbolic and structural shift in its power sector as solar energy is on track to overtake coal in installed capacity for the first time in 2026. But since this milestone is unfolding alongside an aggressive coal build-out that critics say risks diluting the gains of China’s renewable success.

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According to the China Electricity Council, China’s installed solar capacity is projected to surpass coal within the next year, with the gap widening in 2026. By the end of that year, non-fossil energy sources, led by solar and wind, are expected to account for 63 per cent of total power capacity, while coal’s share falls to 31 per cent. The numbers underscore how renewables have become central to China’s energy mix, not just climate pledges.

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However, analysis cited by climate group 350.org, drawing on Global Energy Monitor data, points to a contradictory trend. Developers submitted proposals for 161 GW of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 alone, while 291 GW of coal capacity remains in the pipeline, either permitted or under construction.

Andreas Sieber, 350.org Head of Political Strategy, said: “This is a historic turning point: solar power is set to overtake coal in China for the first time in 2026. This is maybe the clearest demonstration yet that clean energy has won – on cost, scale, and air quality. However, China is responding to coal’s economic defeat by building more of it. With around 290 GW of new coal capacity already permitted or under construction, and another record year for approvals, the country is schizophrenically proving coal is obsolete while rushing to entrench it. This mostly serves a coal industry racing against time. The consequence is predictable: stranded assets, higher system costs, and a transition made harder.”

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