China's aluminium demand likely to settle at 46 million-50 million tonnes by 2023

According to a report from China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's aluminium demand is likely to settle at 46 million-50 million tonnes by 2023. CNIA forecast China's per capita aluminium consumption would experience the peak in around six to seven years. Around 2023, the country will see a slowdown of aluminium demand growth as the Chinese economy would move from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth.

According to CNIA Director Fan Shun Ke in a post-industrialization phase, a slowdown in demand growth is common, as the aluminium demand growth seen dipping to around 6% from double digit rates in previous years.

CNIA also said that the Sino-US trade war is expected to have a direct and indirect impact on the Chinese aluminium products sector. CNIA is urging the Chinese aluminium industry to look for demand potential in the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia to stabilize the export market. It also urged Chinese producers to build aluminium production bases in densely populated regions overseas to cushion the effect of the trade war.

According to Shenzhen-based brokerage co Jinrui Futures, as of August, China has running annual aluminium output capacity of 37.71 million tonnes, up from 37.31 million tonnes in July. China's aluminium demand in August is estimated at 3.01 million tonnes, with surplus of 200,000 tonnes, compared with 3.15 million tonnes in July and deficit of 40,000 million tonnes. China's aluminium demand is likely to be 36.94 million tonnes, with a 20,000-mt surplus, which is expected to rise to 39.27 million tonnes with 310,000 tonnes surplus in 2019.