China alumina prices to run stable this week, other raw materials will keep bullish trend

China alumina production slowdown became market focus in the past week and trading almost stagnated as buyers and sellers of the commodity were seen split over their opinions on the market. The environmental protection inspections which had begun on April 24 were initially thought to have significant impact on the demand-supply scenario of the region, but the influence was found to be limited. Currently, only middlemen were found to be active in generating enquires for alumina.

Spot alumina fared differently in different regions last week. As on Tuesday, May 16, alumina prices stand at the following bands (RMB per tonne):

Source: Shanghai Metals Market

Alumina production slowdown prompted middlemen to raise idea alumina prices. However, the stagnation is expected to come to an end soon, which means middlemen will start passive trading in the market. This week, alumina prices are expected to show stable trends barring a few contracts which may decline, Baiinfo statistics suggests.

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Coming to other aluminium raw materials prices, aluminium fluoride rose high last week as many idle capacity resumed operations. This week, aluminium fluoride spot offers are expected to be priced at US$1,362-1,391 per tonne.

Demand for graphitized petroleum coke GPC saw marginal decline last week. Hence, Chinese local refineries are expected to pare down deal prices of the commodity, while major refineries will keep prices unchanged in the short term. High-sulphur calcined pet coke CPC prices are expected to edge higher by about US$0-4 per tonne.

The following graph shows current price trend of prebaked anodes in east China market:

According to Shanghai Metals Market record, average price of Prebaked Anode (TY-1) in East China market stands at RMB 3,745 per tonne, Prebaked Anode (TY-1) Northwest China price is RMB 3,900 per tonne, Prebaked Anode (TY-1) Southwest China price is RMB 3,500 per tonne, and Prebaked Anode (TY-1) Central China price is RMB 3,550 per tonne as on Tuesday, May 16.

Price of Cryolite (CH-0&CH-1) is currently ranging at RMB 6,400-6,600 per tonne, SMM data shows.