Chalco, China Hongqiao among aluminium firms to gain share value amid tighter Guinea bauxite supplies forecast

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Shares of major aluminium producers in Hong Kong moved higher, supported by rising alumina prices and concerns about future bauxite supplies from Guinea.

Among the gainers, China Aluminum Corporation rose 3.4 per cent to HKD 11.25 (USD 1.44), while China Hongqiao Group gained 3.36 per cent to HKD 29.52 (USD 3.77). Shares of Nanshan Aluminum International were also up 1.27 per cent at HKD 36.70 (USD 4.68).

The move followed a recent increase in alumina prices. According to industry data cited by China Nonferrous Metals Network, alumina prices have climbed above CNY 2,800 (USD 413.88) per tonne, reaching their highest level in recent months.

Market sentiment has been influenced by reports of Guinea introducing new export controls on bauxite beginning in June. Guinea is one of the world's largest suppliers of bauxite, the main raw material used in aluminium production.

Analysts at China Galaxy Securities said market expectations suggest Guinea's planned export quota policy for 2026 could reduce the country's bauxite exports by around 30 million tonnes. Total shipments could fall to about 150 million tonnes, representing a decline of roughly 18 per cent.

To know the long-term bauxite market forecast, book our report: “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook”

A reduction in exports from Guinea could tighten bauxite availability for Chinese refiners and smelters. This may increase pressure on raw material supplies and raise production costs across the aluminium value chain.

Primary aluminium prices could also rise further due to both higher production costs and concerns over future supply availability.