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16 JULY 2018 AL CIRCLE

Both LME and SHFE closed the last week slightly lower, expected to stay rangebound in the short term

EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

The US dollar index dipped after it rose, with pressure from poorer-than-expected US consumer confidence. Base metals mostly inched up but faced resistance from the expected fallout from the trade war. 

After trading slightly lower last Friday, LME aluminium failed to break pressure at the five-day moving average last Friday night, as it rebounded to a high of US$2,058 per tonne on weakened US dollar. It is expected to diverge further from that moving average level today with trading range at US$2,015-2,050 per tonne.

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As on July 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2102per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2051per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2051.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2115 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1144700 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 970725 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 173975 tonne.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2031per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2073 per tonne on July 16 from US$ 2094 per tonne on July 13.

As shorts added their positions and longs covered their positions, the SHFE 1809 contract declined in the afternoon to a low of RMB 14,030 per tonne. The contract traded weakly tracking its LME counterpart, but received some support from rising alumina prices. It is seen trading at RMB 13,950-14,150 per tonne today, with spot offers at a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 tonne on the last trading day before delivery. 

SMM expects it to remain weak and rangebound in the short term as alumina prices rebound while consumption weakens in the low season. It is likely to continue to trade at RMB 13,900-14,200 per tonne this week.

Key factors to watch today include China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in June, its gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, the value-add of industries above designated size last month, and the US retail sales data in June. 

Tagged with:

LME Price Aluminium

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EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

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