
The US dollar index came off from a 13.5-month high and closed at 96.57 on Thursday, while the Chinese Yuan recovered from its weakest level since January 2017. Most of the base metals rose across the board overnight on Thursday after closing lower for two days. LME aluminium closed the day’s trading at US$ 1998 per tonne yesterday, slightly higher than the last closing. LME aluminium reversed all early losses to a high of US$2,056 per tonne before it edged down and closed at US$2,038 per tonne on Thursday night. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to test the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages today with a trading range of US$2,020-2,070 per tonne.

As on August 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1997per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1998 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2023 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2024 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2070 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2075 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1124150 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 838875 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 285275 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2039.36 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2086 per tonne on August 16, from US$ 2078 per tonne on August 15.
The SHFE 1810 contract closed below the five- and 10-day moving averages at RMB 14,440 per tonne. This came after it climbed gradually to a high of RMB 14,510 per tonne as the US dollar softened. The contract fell and closed at RMB 14,450 per tonne overnight after it hit a high of RMB 14,535 per tonne. We expect it to trade at RMB 14,400-14,550 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 70-30 per tonne. It is expected to hover at low levels in the short run given pessimistic market sentiment.
Key things to watch today include US consumer sentiment in August surveyed by the University of Michigan and the Eurozone’s consumer price inflation in July.
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