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11 OCTOBER 2018 AL CIRCLE

Both LME and SHFE aluminium on downtrend with the easing of alumina supply concerns; to stay weak in near term

EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

The euro and pound rose on Wednesday, underpinned by optimism for a Brexit deal, while the dollar lost ground against a basket of currencies even as US bond yields hovered at multi-year peaks. LME base metals, except for tin, fell across the board on Wednesday.

LME aluminium fluctuated and posted a five-day losing streak on Wednesday with an extended MACD green line. A relatively firm dollar, 50% capacity resumption of capacity at Hydro's Alunorte alumina refinery and dips in alumina prices overseas accounted for the recent weakness in LME aluminium. Australian alumina FOB price dropped to US$ 550 per tonne today from US$ 600 per tonne on October 9. The aluminium contract is expected to trade at US$2,000-2,060 per tonne today.

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As on October 10, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2028 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2029 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2036 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2038 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2083 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2088 per tonne. 

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further to 948,425 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 609,625 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 338,800 tonne.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2041 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend 

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2047 per tonne today from US$ 2082 per tonne on October 10. 

Smaller support from costs on lower alumina prices dragged the SHFE 1811 contract below the 60-day moving average to an intraday low of RMB 14,400 per tonne on Wednesday. It settled at that level, down RMB 115 per tonne from Tuesday. The dominant contract moved to the 1812 contract and closed at RMB 14,425 per tonne. The SHFE 1811 contract fell and closed near its session lows overnight as its LME counterpart weakened.  Higher export tax rebates also contributed to the fall. SHFE aluminium is likely to remain weak in near term as support from alumina wanes and aluminium consumption remains sluggish. The contract is expected to trade at RMB 14,300-14,400 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 60-20 per tonne.


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EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

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