
Base metals saw mixed trading on the impact of trade war and slower growth of China's economy. LME aluminium lost 1.5%. The light metal contract traded within a broad range overnight with support at the five-day moving average and resistance at the 10-day one. It closed at US$2,031.5 per tonne after touching a low of US$2,030.5 per tonne. The LME inventory has been continuously surging to touch 1.18 million tonnes. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,025-2,060 per tonne today.

As on July 17, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2109.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2064.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2065 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2130 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1175075 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1004925 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 170150 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2059.02 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2074 per tonne on July 18 from US$ 2083 per tonne on July 17.
The SHFE 1809 contract hovered around the five- and 10-day moving averages during yesterday’s trading. Trading volumes sharply dropped 80,000 lots. The contract stood firm above the RMB 14,000 per tonne level with cost support, while weakened LME aluminium and slower growth of Chinese economy dampened market sentiment. Without strong upward momentum, it is likely to consolidate at RMB14, 000-14,100 per tonne today, with spot discounts at RMB 80-40 per tonne. We expect the contract to remain rangebound in the short term as costs rebound but demand weakens.
The US dollar index gained 0.48% to close at 94.96. Key factors to watch today will be the US weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), as well as the Eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) in June.
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