
The US dollar recovered on Monday as the US and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs. Most LME base metals closed higher on Monday and aluminium rose 0.9%. Most SHFE base metals also ticked up overnight and aluminium gained 0.3%.
Three-month LME aluminium rebounded from an intraday low of US$1,752.5 per tonne to close 0.94% higher at US$1,777 per tonne on Monday night. The loading up of long positions primarily accounted for the gain over the day. LME cash contract closed lower at the day’s trading but recovered some losses overnight. Three months LME aluminium is expected to trade between US$1,760-1,820 per tonne today.
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As on June 10, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1720 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1720.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1751 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1753 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1870 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1875 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1105750 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 708825 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 396925 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1753 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) gained slightly today to US$ 2026 per tonne from US$ 2015 per tonne on Monday.
Promising domestic trade data for May failed to lift the most-active SHFE July contract as the market believed trade worries caused the higher exports. The contract fell to the lowest since May 7, at RMB 13,915 per tonne, before support from the five-day moving average ended it at RMB13, 940 per tonne, down 0.5% on Monday. As longs added their positions, the most active SHFE July contract climbed to a high of RMB14,015 per tonne overnight before it closed 0.29% higher at RMB13,995 per tonne. It is expected to trade at RMB13,800-14,100 per tonne today, with spot premiums of RMB 10-30 per tonne over the June contract.
Slower decline in social stocks of primary aluminium and expectations of poor demand in June are likely to prevent upward movement of the contract.
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