
LME aluminium surged high during yesterday’s trading and closed at US$2,327 on Thursday May 10, from US$2295 per tonne on Wednesday May 9. With a surge in positions, LME aluminium fluctuated significantly and closed at a low level overnight. As shorts are in a more advantageous position than longs, Shanghai Metals Market analysis expects LME aluminium to test support of US$2,300 per tonne at the 20-day moving average today with a trading range at US$2,300-2,340 per tonne.

As on May 10, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2325 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2327 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2324.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2325.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2213 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2218 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further to 1265175 tonnes as more and more metals are going out. Live Warrants totalled at 863950 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 401225 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering low at US$ 2330.29tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased from US$ 2281 per tonne on May 10 to US$ 2300 per tonne on May 11.
The SHFE 1807 contract met support at the 10-day moving average yesterday evening after dipping to a low of RMB 14,600 per tonne with pressure from shorts. The SHFE/LME ratio stood at 6.37 today. As seen by SMM, SHFE 1807 contract is expected to gain more support compared with its LME counterpart. SMM expects the contract to trade rangebound among the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages today with a range at RMB 14,600-14,770 per tonne. Spot prices are seen at a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne.
The US dollar fell overnight after the April consumer-price inflation data came in weaker than expected. The US dollar index closed at 92.71, down 0.42%. Key factors to watch today include the US import price index in April and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for May.
The US dollar is likely to stay firm in the short term and base metals are expected to maintain their mixed and rangebound patterns in the short term.
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