
As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, China’s aluminium inventory after Chinese New Year Holiday may continue to go up to 2.1 million tonnes from the present volume of 1.8 million tonnes. Sluggish trading and weak consumption ahead of the week-long holiday has accumulated the stocks, and it is a seasonal increase. Growing inventory has contributed to the decline in SHFE aluminium prices since the beginning of 2018.
After an occasional increase yesterday, A00 aluminium Ingot prices remain unchanged at RMB 14,010 per tonne today. The prices are expected to move within a range of RMB 13,990-14,030. Spot discount will range within RMB 240-200 per tonne today. In the individual markets, average primary aluminium ingot prices register a drop except in South China market where it remains flat. The prices fluctuations in the individual markets can be seen in the following table.
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SMM expects the price of the lightweight metal to trade in a wider range after the holidays. Fundamentally, there is more bullishness in the overseas market than in the Chinese domestic market. However, increasing aluminium exports from China last month may create uncertainties over the destocking process outside China.
On the cost front, average spot alumina prices remain flat today. Bauxite and prebaked anode prices too registered no change today but expected to go down in the short term due to lower electricity prices.
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