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Auto mileage standards set off race between steel and aluminium
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
3 min read
Higher gas mileage standards that automakers are required to meet by 2025 have set off a race between the steel and aluminium industries.
Automakers have been increasingly turning to aluminum as a quick way to make cars lighter and improve gas mileage. But steel is fighting back by developing stronger and lighter material that targets the auto industry.
“Steel still will be the dominant material,” said Richard Schultz, a consultant with respected automotive research firm Ducker Worldwide of Troy, Mich.
Lighter-weight aluminum is gaining ground on steel but remains a small share of the market. The steel industry now ships about 20 million tons to the auto industry, which will decline by 2025 to about 17 million as aluminum body sheet rises from about 100,000 to 1 million tons in 2020 and 1.5 million in 2025.
“Lightweighing” is the term used by both steel and aluminum producers to describe what's needed to meet aggressive standards announced in 2012 that will nearly double average fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks.
Automakers have no choice, experts say, but to turn to aluminum. They must make decisions soon to meet long lead times needed by suppliers and themselves to develop new fuel-efficient cars and trucks.
On Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency said new cars and trucks sold last year averaged 23.6 miles per gallon in combined city and highway driving, a record attained mainly through improvements to engines and transmissions.
While the steel industry has done a “wonderful job” developing new high-strength steels, that is only delaying aluminum's inevitable gains, Schultz said.
“There's no time. The EPA has told me the decisions for 2025 have to be made by 2016, so the manufacturers are turning to things they know,” Schultz said. A rule of thumb: Add a million tons of aluminum and take out 1.5 million tons of steel. “And that's how you save weight.”
A 2011 survey of automakers by Ducker found that use of aluminum — used for years in engines and wheels — will rise from 327 pounds in 2009 to 550 pounds in 2025. Much of the increase will come in the body, bumper, hoods and doors. Use of advanced high-strength steels in those parts will increase as well, from 261 pounds in 2017 to 375 pounds by 2025.
The first major vehicle conversion from steel to aluminum — the Ford F-150 — will ship next fall, according to Lloyd T. O'Carroll, an analyst with Davenport & Co. of Richmond, Va.
The F-150 is the best-selling pickup in North America, selling 751,674 units in 2012, in front of the Chevrolet Silverado at 454,255, and Dodge Ram at 362,618.
“Should consumer acceptance of an aluminum truck proceed smoothly, we expect that highest-volume light trucks and SUVs to be converted over the next 5 to 10 years,” O'Carroll said.
Schultz says the F-150 will be made with 900 pounds of aluminum sheet per vehicle next year.
The analysts are among several saying the F-150 will use more aluminum, although Ford Motor Co. spokesman Mike Levine said such talk is premature. Schultz says look for an announcement at the Detroit International Auto Show in January.
“As soon as the truck hits the streets next year, GM will tear it down and take it apart,” Schultz said, and the Chevrolet Silverado will be the next to convert.
Automakers have been increasingly turning to aluminum as a quick way to make cars lighter and improve gas mileage. But steel is fighting back by developing stronger and lighter material that targets the auto industry.
“Steel still will be the dominant material,” said Richard Schultz, a consultant with respected automotive research firm Ducker Worldwide of Troy, Mich.
Lighter-weight aluminum is gaining ground on steel but remains a small share of the market. The steel industry now ships about 20 million tons to the auto industry, which will decline by 2025 to about 17 million as aluminum body sheet rises from about 100,000 to 1 million tons in 2020 and 1.5 million in 2025.
“Lightweighing” is the term used by both steel and aluminum producers to describe what's needed to meet aggressive standards announced in 2012 that will nearly double average fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks.
Automakers have no choice, experts say, but to turn to aluminum. They must make decisions soon to meet long lead times needed by suppliers and themselves to develop new fuel-efficient cars and trucks.
On Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency said new cars and trucks sold last year averaged 23.6 miles per gallon in combined city and highway driving, a record attained mainly through improvements to engines and transmissions.
While the steel industry has done a “wonderful job” developing new high-strength steels, that is only delaying aluminum's inevitable gains, Schultz said.
“There's no time. The EPA has told me the decisions for 2025 have to be made by 2016, so the manufacturers are turning to things they know,” Schultz said. A rule of thumb: Add a million tons of aluminum and take out 1.5 million tons of steel. “And that's how you save weight.”
A 2011 survey of automakers by Ducker found that use of aluminum — used for years in engines and wheels — will rise from 327 pounds in 2009 to 550 pounds in 2025. Much of the increase will come in the body, bumper, hoods and doors. Use of advanced high-strength steels in those parts will increase as well, from 261 pounds in 2017 to 375 pounds by 2025.
The first major vehicle conversion from steel to aluminum — the Ford F-150 — will ship next fall, according to Lloyd T. O'Carroll, an analyst with Davenport & Co. of Richmond, Va.
The F-150 is the best-selling pickup in North America, selling 751,674 units in 2012, in front of the Chevrolet Silverado at 454,255, and Dodge Ram at 362,618.
“Should consumer acceptance of an aluminum truck proceed smoothly, we expect that highest-volume light trucks and SUVs to be converted over the next 5 to 10 years,” O'Carroll said.
Schultz says the F-150 will be made with 900 pounds of aluminum sheet per vehicle next year.
The analysts are among several saying the F-150 will use more aluminum, although Ford Motor Co. spokesman Mike Levine said such talk is premature. Schultz says look for an announcement at the Detroit International Auto Show in January.
“As soon as the truck hits the streets next year, GM will tear it down and take it apart,” Schultz said, and the Chevrolet Silverado will be the next to convert.
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