August molten aluminium ratio above expectations; September expected to rise month-on-month

According to SMM statistics, China's primary aluminium production in August 2026 (31 days) rose 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y and was flat month-on-month.

Domestic downstream demand recovered month-on-month in August, with consumption of some fabricated products holding up reasonably well. In addition, some sectors brought forward peak-season orders for pre-stocking, which lifted willingness to procure molten aluminium and pushed up the share of molten aluminium output nationwide.

The molten aluminium share rose 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 78.8 per cent, slightly above expectations at the start of the month. The core increase came from firm aluminium billet processing premiums in the first half of the month, with production pacing modestly ahead of expectations; meanwhile, procurement demand for molten aluminium from some alloy segments also beat forecasts.

Based on SMM's molten aluminium ratio estimates, China's primary aluminium cast ingot volume in August fell 12.9 per cent year-on-year and 2.3 per cent month-on-month.

Capacity changes: As of end-August, SMM statistics put China's built primary aluminium capacity at approximately 46.2087 million tonnes, unchanged month-on-month.

Output forecast: Entering September 2026, the traditional peak downstream season arrives, and industry sentiment is expected to see a substantive improvement, with demand for most downstream products projected to rise. Overall, the molten aluminium ratio is expected to increase 0.7 percentage points to 79.5 per cent.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.