Aluminium, tariffs and turbulence: Can Mexico’s aerospace keep its wings spread?

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Mexico’s aerospace industry is preparing for a new phase of regional trade dynamics as the ongoing review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and continued US tariffs on aluminium, steel and derivative products reshape the operating landscape. While the process was initially expected to conclude by July 1, discussions among the three member nations have extended negotiations through the week of July 20.

Industry leaders are focusing on adaptation rather than expecting pre-tariff conditions to reappear. The Mexican Federation of the Aerospace Industry (FEMIA) CEO, Luis Lizcano, emphasised that companies must maintain competitiveness under evolving trade rules while identifying opportunities within the new framework.

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“Rather than looking back nostalgically to a period without tariffs, we need to focus on understanding how to operate under these new rules imposed by global economies, how to adapt to them, how to benefit from them and how to compete more effectively,” the CEO noted.

For aerospace manufacturers, tariffs on aluminium, steel and related products still weigh on operations. Estimates drawn up by the National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (Index) suggest that these measures are creating an economic impact of about USD 7 billion across Mexico’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors, affecting costs, investment decisions and competitiveness.

Aerospace supply chains remain highly dependent on North America

Mexico’s aerospace sector remains deeply integrated with North American production networks. The nation primarily manufactures aircraft components that are exported for final assembly abroad, with the US accounting for nearly 80 per cent of aerospace exports. Canada and European markets absorb the remaining share.

Recognising the importance of the USMCA review, aerospace representatives have joined government-led groups through the Cuarto de Junto mechanism, allowing industry stakeholders to contribute technical expertise and supply-chain insights to Mexico’s negotiating strategy.

FEMIA expects the agreement to continue supporting regional industrial activity despite the ongoing review process. “We anticipate a very thorough review, but ultimately the USMCA will continue to be a driver of economic activity and growth for the aerospace sector,” Lizcano stated.

However, uncertainty remains a significant factor “not only for the aerospace industry but across virtually all economic sectors,” influencing business decisions.

Growth slows as policy uncertainty lingers

Mexico’s aerospace industry has maintained expansion, but at a more moderate pace than in previous years.

FEMIA estimates aerospace exports reached approximately USD 11 billion in 2025. Following annual growth rates of 13 to 16 per cent during the post-pandemic recovery period, sales grew by 9 per cent year-on-year during the first half of 2025, signalling a gradual slowdown.

Compared with expectations closer to 10 per cent in earlier years, FEMIA revised its 2026 growth forecast to around 7 per cent.

Outcome of the USMCA review is being closely followed, as any change could influence investment flows, sourcing strategies and future production decisions.

Mexico strengthens its position as a global aerospace hub

Despite trade-related challenges, Mexico’s aerospace exports increased from USD 6.7 billion in 2021 to USD 10.7 billion in 2024, representing growth of nearly 60 per cent over three years. Industry estimates indicate exports may have surpassed USD 13.6 billion in 2025 based on trade data and tariff classifications.

Today, Mexico ranks as the world’s 12th-largest aerospace manufacturing centre and the fourth-largest aerospace exporter. The industry comprises 368 companies producing fuselage structures, avionics systems, turbine components, electrical harnesses and structural assemblies used in commercial, executive and military aircraft programmes worldwide.

Global aerospace majors, including Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Safran, Honeywell, GE Aerospace and RTX, continue to expand their footprint in the country, supporting technology transfer, supplier development and workforce training.

Regional aerospace clusters have also become increasingly specialised, with different states focusing on precision machining, avionics, engine components, structural assemblies and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services.

As policymakers and industry leaders await the outcome of the USMCA review, they must be “prepared to adapt” to Mexico’s aerospace strategy in an increasingly complex trade environment. As observed by Licazo, “Adaptation is essential because the best way to achieve success is by responding effectively to change.”

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