Aluminium semis exports from China still down despite MoM increase in May

According to numbers recently released from the People’s Republic of China, aluminium semis exports rose in the month of May by 1.4 per cent month-on-month and 2.9 per cent year-on-year. The rise to 374,000 metric tons of exported semis is attributed to a corresponding rise in flat-rolled products by 5 per cent month-on-month to 155,000 metric tons, and aluminium foil exports by 6 per cent month-on-month to 102,000 metric tons. Extrusions went up as well by 5 per cent year-on-year to 102,000 metric tons.

Net exports of aluminium semis have fallen overall between January and May (inclusive) by 8.8 per cent year-on-year to 1,680,000 metric tons, down from 1,814,000 metric tons in January through May of last year. However, when compared to last month, net exports rose slightly, by 0.7 per cent to 342,000 metric tons in May. Net exports are up 4.2 per cent year-on-year, per Chinese customs numbers.

China’s exports of aluminium semis fell in the period of January through April by 10.7 per cent year-on-year to 1,305,000 metric tons, down from 1,450,000 metric tons in 2015. Driving the decrease in exports was a corresponding drop in flat-rolled products of 32 per cent year-on-year, less 244,000 metric tons for a total of 532,000 metric tons in January through April. The United States is the main recipient of Chinese flat-rolled products (importing 21 per cent of China’s production of same), and it imported 114,600 metric tons in the period, which represents a drop of 7.6 per cent year-on-year.

In contrast, export of extrusions has risen in January to April by 29 per cent year-on-year, by 89,000 metric tons to 384,000 metric tons. Vietnam is the recipient of the majority of China’s extrusions, receiving 169,900 metric tons during January through April (representing 44 per cent of China’s total output), up from 63,800 metric tons in the same period of 2015. As has been detailed in these pages, a significant amount of the increase may well be the result of the illicit trade in fake semis, or aluminium products sold as semi-fabricated from China, then melted down and re-sold as ingots.