Aluminium price declines likely to extend through 2016

According to a leading investment banking, securities and investment management firm, aluminium prices may fall more than 10 per cent by year’s end amid ongoing weakness in Chinese demand that is unlikely to show any recovery in 2016.

The firm cut its aluminium forecast to $1 350 a ton from $1 550 a ton. The analysts at the firm wrote, “We now anticipate no material recovery in Chinese metals demand growth in 2016.” China’s transition from metals-intensive, investment-led growth “is likely to be permanent,” they said, while also citing an overhang of property inventory and the country’s high debt levels as challenging for demand in the world’s top commodities consuming nation.

The slowest economic expansion in China in a generation has led to the oversupply of metals and sent aluminium prices near six-year lows. Producers have announced output cuts to ease the glut, while Alcoa sees curbs in global aluminium supply as likely to deliver a deficit.

Aluminium at London Metal Exchange rose 0.7 per cent to $1 512.50 a ton for a slight gain on the year.