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AL CIRCLE

Aluminium cools after rally but long term outlook remains firm, states Kotak

2MINS READ

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According to a recent assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities, the aluminium market has entered a consolidation phase after a strong rally. LME has recorded a sharp 7 per cent from their recent highs, settling near USD 3,030 per tonne. However, the good news is the current levels remain significantly elevated, standing about 20 per cent above the average recorded during FY2025.

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To know about the aluminium market forecast for 2026 and beyond, download our report: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026

Kotak pointed out that the recent moderation has largely been driven by global financial developments rather than any meaningful deterioration in aluminium’s core demand–supply balance. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate reductions have strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on commodity prices. At the same time, weakness across other metals, including gold, silver and copper, has added to the softer trend.

Also Read: Global aluminium extrusion leaders 2025: Top producers with their output capacity and expansion plans

Even with these short-term pressures, the brokerage maintains that aluminium’s long-term position remains favourable. With a steep rise in demand, the pace of new capacity creation has significantly lagged behind requirements. Occasional supply interruptions have further added to this issue by tightening availability and reinforcing a deficit-driven environment.

In future, Kotak expects aluminium prices to remain comfortably above production cost levels. It has estimated an average price range of USD 2,900 per tonne for both FY2027 and FY 2028, which is a bit lower than the present spot rates but still has the potential to thrive in a strong pricing environment. 

In this domain, Vedanta Ltd. stands out as the brokerage’s top recommendation. Kotak has set a target price of INR 890 (USD 10.70) for the stock, indicating a potential gain of nearly one-third from current levels.

Vedanta’s shares ended Wednesday’s session at INR 677 (USD 8.15), reflecting a daily increase of 1.32 per cent. The stock has delivered gains exceeding 12 per cent so far in 2026, which clearly reflects sustainable investor interest in this stock.

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Last updated on : 19 FEBRUARY 2026
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