Calculate Embedded Emissions for Unwrought Aluminium (HS7601)

Enter your input

Payable emissions (tCO₂e/t)

Total CBAM Cost (€)

Notes:
There may be a difference when calculating the price with respect to import volume, carbon price, and benchmark emissions, as the embedded formula may result in minor variations due to decimal rounding. Therefore, the actual value may vary.

CBAM is applicable to trade volumes starting from 50 metric tonnes. For trade volumes below 50 metric tonnes, CBAM does not apply.

Usage Procedure – How to use the CBAM Calculator Sheet

Enter or update values only in the INPUT
PARAMETERS section (Highlighted in blue) , including
the carbon price, benchmark emissions, CBAM
chargeable percentage (as per the phase-in year),
and imported quantity.

The system will automatically calculate the payable
emissions and the total CBAM cost (€) based on the
inputs provided.

Notes:
• Change any input value to automatically update CBAM cost.
• Formula used: Carbon price × payable emissions × quantity.
• Model aligned with CBAM supplier-side illustrative methodology.

11 JUNE 2026 AL CIRCLE

Alcoa valuation back in focus as UBS flags aluminium supply risks and stronger demand

EDITED BY : STAFF EDITOR 2MINS READ

Alcoa in focus of investors

Stock image for referential purposes only

Alcoa has come into focus after UBS highlighted the potential impact of supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and growing global demand for aluminium, prompting investors to take a fresh look at the company's valuation.

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The renewed attention comes as aluminium prices remain supported by supply concerns and increasing demand from electrification and industrial sectors.

Alcoa's shares have seen some recent volatility, falling 1.40 per cent over the past day and 13.58 per cent during the last week. Despite the pullback, the stock remains up 14.61 per cent over the past 30 days and 28.07 per cent since the start of the year, while its one-year total shareholder return stands at 154.14 per cent.

One widely followed valuation model estimates Alcoa's fair value at USD 73.87 per share, compared with its most recent closing price of USD 72.41, suggesting the stock is trading at a modest discount of around 2 per cent to its estimated value. That assessment is based on expectations for the company's future revenue growth, profitability and earnings performance.

A separate valuation approach based on projected future cash flows paints a more optimistic picture. Under that model, Alcoa is valued at around USD 126.99 per share, implying the stock is trading at an estimated 43 per cent discount to its intrinsic value.

At the same time, analysts caution that a number of factors could influence the company's future performance, including greater use of recycled aluminium, competition from alternative materials, changes in tariffs and evolving regulatory requirements.

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On a traditional earnings basis, Alcoa trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.6 times, compared with a peer average of 18.1 times and an estimated fair multiple of 22.8 times. The comparison suggests the shares are not significantly undervalued relative to industry peers, even though cash flow-based models point to greater upside.

The differing valuation measures come as aluminium prices continue to draw support from supply-side constraints and stronger demand linked to the global energy transition, leaving investors to weigh whether Alcoa's current share price fully reflects its long-term growth potential.