
The US dollar traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies on the back of Friday's non-farm payrolls report and climbed to the highest in two-and-a-half weeks, to 97.446. Base metals ended mostly lower. LME aluminium dipped 0.28% and SHFE aluminium eased 0.07% during Friday night.
Three-month LME aluminium rebounded after a higher US dollar drove it to a low of US$1,791 per tonne, but it failed to exceed US$1,807 per tonne and closed 0.28% lower on the day at US$1,804.5 per tonne on Friday night. LME aluminium is likely to trade at US$1,770-1,820 per tonne today.
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As on July 5, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1779 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1779.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1801 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1802 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1910 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1915 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped substantially below the one million mark this week plunging down to 964400 tonnes on Friday. Live Warrants totalled at 635500 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 328900 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1804 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) dropped to US$ 2002 per tonne today from US$ 2015 per tonne on Friday.
As longs took profits, the most traded SHFE August contract erased some of overnight gains to close 0.36% higher at RMB 13,790 per tonne on Friday. The SHFE August contract stabilised after it fell below all moving averages right after opening during Friday night trading. It ended 0.07% lower at RMB 13,795 per tonne, and may trade between RMB 13,700-13,850 per tonne today.
Demand weakened, while aluminium producers were not keen to recover production. Falling social inventories of primary aluminium ingots will continue to support aluminium prices, but declining prices of alumina and anodes will take a toll. SHFE aluminium is expected to remain weak and trade rangebound in the short term.
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