01 DECEMBER 2015Shanghai Metal Market
66% of Chinese aluminium smelters bearish toward aluminium prices, SMM survey
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
1 min read
66% of the 38 Chinese aluminium smelters surveyed by SMM are bearish toward this week’s aluminium prices . Another 21% expect prices to stabilize, while the rest 13% see a rally.
Those pessimists see LME aluminium falling below USD 1,450/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminium down below RMB 10,000/mt. Domestic aluminium processors will show lower buying interest, due to poor end-user demand, tightening year-end liquidity and recent volatility in SHFE aluminium . Moreover, suppliers will rush to sell to raise cash, another drag on the light metal.
Those neutralists see SHFE 1602 aluminium hovering around RMB 10,000/mt. Short-covering will occur once SHFE aluminium retreat from RMB 10,000/mt, but longs will take profit after SHFE aluminium return to near RMB 10,500/mt.
The rest expect LME aluminium to return above USD 1,480/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminium rise above RMB 10,200/mt. More Chinese aluminium smelters are expected to cut output against growing losses from falling aluminium prices. Meanwhile, new capacity is commissioned at a slower pace. This will ease oversupply pressure. Aluminium stocks in China’s major trading markets fell, suggesting that output cut is beginning to yield result.
Those pessimists see LME aluminium falling below USD 1,450/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminium down below RMB 10,000/mt. Domestic aluminium processors will show lower buying interest, due to poor end-user demand, tightening year-end liquidity and recent volatility in SHFE aluminium . Moreover, suppliers will rush to sell to raise cash, another drag on the light metal.
Those neutralists see SHFE 1602 aluminium hovering around RMB 10,000/mt. Short-covering will occur once SHFE aluminium retreat from RMB 10,000/mt, but longs will take profit after SHFE aluminium return to near RMB 10,500/mt.
The rest expect LME aluminium to return above USD 1,480/mt and SHFE 1602 aluminium rise above RMB 10,200/mt. More Chinese aluminium smelters are expected to cut output against growing losses from falling aluminium prices. Meanwhile, new capacity is commissioned at a slower pace. This will ease oversupply pressure. Aluminium stocks in China’s major trading markets fell, suggesting that output cut is beginning to yield result.
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