Methodology

Our study on the Aluminium Outlook 2025 will adopt a comprehensive, structured approach to analyse key aspects of the industry. The research will cover an in-depth assessment of raw material sources, price trends of alumina and bauxite, and examine the impact of global carbon tariffs and newly imposed United States tariffs on the aluminium sector. The study will be conducted through a multi-faceted methodology, detailed as follows.

1. Research Approach

The study was conducted through extensive secondary research, complemented by targeted primary research, and structured into the following key components:

• Secondary Research: A thorough review of publicly available resources, including government reports, industry publications, company sustainability disclosures, annual reports, and environmental reports.
• Primary Research: A series of 5–10 structured telephonic and online interviews were conducted with key industry stakeholders, including raw material traders, suppliers, and industry associations.
• Industry Seminars: Relevant industry conferences and seminars were attended to gather first-hand insights from policymakers and industry experts.

2. Data Collection

To ensure a comprehensive market analysis, data will be sourced through multiple channels:

a. Reviewing Publicly Available Resources

• Company annual reports and investor presentations.
• Environmental reports and sustainability disclosures.
• Official company websites and press releases.
• Published articles, white papers, and research papers from reputable sources.

b. Accessing Curated Databases

We utilised our in-house aluminium industry-focused database to support the research. For trade-related insights, we accessed and extracted relevant trade data using subscription-based trade data tools.

3. Data Validation

To ensure accuracy and alignment with client requirements, all collected data underwent a rigorous validation process:

• Cross-referencing: Primary research findings were cross-checked against secondary data.
• Expert Review: Subject matter specialists validated key insights to ensure reliability.

4. Data Analysis

The collected data were systematically analysed using advanced methodologies, including historical data review, five-year price analysis, forecasting and projections, and trade data evaluation, to generate meaningful insights.

• Historical Data Review: A detailed examination of past trends in aluminium raw materials, pricing, and market movements over the previous decade was conducted.
• Five-Year Price Analysis: Historical pricing patterns were tracked to identify long-term market trajectories for primary aluminium.
• Forecasting and Projections: Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were calculated, and trend analysis was performed to predict future market movements.
• Trade Data Evaluation: An in-depth analysis of trade-related data from credible institutions such as the International Trade Administration and the International Trade Council was carried out, supported by paid trade intelligence platforms.

After analysing the information, a proprietary statistical tool was used for market estimation and forecasting, generating the quantitative figures and sizes of the market and its sub-segments for both the current scenario and the forecast period. This included production, consumption, and supply volumes, as well as usage by end-user sectors. After estimating the market sizes and figures, the numbers were verified through consultation with industry participants and key opinion leaders. The extensive network of industry participants added value to the research process by validating the numbers and estimates provided in the study. At the final stage of the research process, the findings were consolidated, and a final report was prepared.