WEEKLY: Guinea quota rumours whip up alumina volatility as Shanxi outages tighten spot supply

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As of June 26, the weighted national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at RMB 2,781 per tonne, increased RMB 32 per tonne from a week earlier, according to Mysteel's price assessment.

 On the supply side, since Shanxi province launched a safety inspection and rectification campaign for red mud storage facilities, several enterprises were forced to halt production due to insufficient remaining capacity in existing red mud ponds or delays in commissioning new ones.

 Additionally, a major Guangxi-based alumina refinery underwent an unplanned maintenance shutdown caused by equipment failure in its calciner. Cumulatively, three large-scale producers across both northern and southern regions experienced operational disruptions since the beginning of this year. This led to a decline in the execution efficiency of regional long-term contracts, tightening the availability of spot cargoes in the north.

Consequently, sellers' inclination to hold back material for higher prices strengthened significantly, resulting in a wider price gap in sporadic transactions. In contrast, newly commissioned and restarted capacities in Guangxi gradually ramped up output, causing supply in the southwest to trend toward a surplus. The persistently widening north-south price spread spurred increased cross-regional flows of alumina moving from south to north.

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On the demand side, expectations of a bauxite export quota policy in Guinea, coupled with anticipated refinery production cuts, fuelled bullish sentiment in the market. Downstream aluminium smelters and traders showed a phased increase in inquiry and procurement activity, with moderate restocking providing support to northern prices.

 However, in the latter half of the week, rumours that Guinea's bauxite export policy might be relaxed triggered a sharp sell-off in alumina price. Quotes from basis traders followed the spot market lower, prompting downstream buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance once again, leading to overall cautious physical spot trading.

Overall, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers intensified. Spot prices in the north held firm with a slight upward bias for the week, while the southern market remained stable under pressure. China's alumina output saw a slight increase during the June 22-June 26 week. Production among the 44 refiners tracked by Mysteel totalled 1.8 million tonnes during the week, marking a 1.46 per cent increase compared with the previous week, according to Mysteel's survey.

Meanwhile, by June 26, combined alumina stocks across China's ten ports, 44 alumina producers, 89 primary aluminium smelters, and rail yards or in transit had increased slightly from 6.238 million tonnes on June 19, 2026 to 6.26 million tonnes on June 26, 2026, up 0.35 per cent on week, the survey findings showed.

The increase was primarily driven by continued output from newly commissioned Southern capacity offsetting only partial drawdowns from sporadic Northern production disruptions.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel