Rise in primary aluminium liquid metal ratio lower than expected in April, expected to edge higher in May

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According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminium output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7 per cent year-on-year and fell by 2.9 per cent month-on-month.

As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminium sheet, strip & foil and aluminium wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminium ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3 per cent in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminium profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminium ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminium ingot output in April dropped by 3.4 per cent year-on-year and 9.0 per cent month-on-month.

Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminium capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes.

Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminium production ratio among domestic primary aluminium producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminium fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminium ratio. Comprehensively, the liquid aluminium ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8 per cent.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.