According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in April 2025 (30 days) increased by 2.6 per cent Y-o-Y but decreased by 2.9 per cent M-o-M. The proportion of liquid aluminum in the domestic aluminum industry fluctuated slightly in April, with the monthly industry proportion of liquid aluminum slipping by 0.52 percentage points M-o-M to 74 per cent. This was mainly due to, on one hand, the relocation of new replacement projects, with no output from the new site yet and some ingot casting from the sedimentation liquid at the old plant; on the other hand, some aluminum plants in northwest China and Chongqing reported downstream production cuts, leading to a slight increase in ingot casting at the end of the month. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot casting volume in April decreased by 0.9 per cent Y-o-Y to approximately 944,400 tonnes.
Capacity Changes: As of the end of April, SMM estimated that the domestic existing capacity of aluminium was around 45.69 million tonnes (SMM made revisions last month by taking into account capacity replacement and the dismantling of old plants and eliminating some capacity that was calculated twice). The domestic operating capacity of aluminium was around 43.91 million tonnes, with the industry operating rate rising by 0.3 percentage points M-o-M and 1.8 percentage points Y-o-Y to 96.1 per cent.
In terms of new operating capacity, the aluminium plants in Sichuan and Chongqing have basically completed production resumptions, with an increase in operating capacity; a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminium plant in Qinghai has reached full production. In terms of production cuts, individual aluminium plants in Shanxi and Chongqing have successively undergone minor maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease of 20,000 mt/year in operating capacity. Additionally, SMM learned that an aluminium plant commenced the first batch of a 200,000 tonnes per year aluminium replacement project, relocating from Shandong to Yunnan, within the month.
Production forecast: Entering May 2025, the domestic operating capacity of aluminium is expected to maintain high-level operation. The second batch of capacity replacement projects from an aluminum plant in Shandong to Yunnan is expected to commence in Q3, with the first batch of projects expected to achieve output in May. Additionally, some enterprises have recently undergone capacity maintenance, with SMM learning that small-batch rotational maintenance is being adopted, causing minimal disruption to the supply side. Subsequent attention should still be paid to the downstream operating situation of aluminium in various regions amidst weakening demand.
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