Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2512 futures contract opened at the day's low of RMB 20,540 per tonne overnight, then fluctuated upward to hit a high of RMB 20,690 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 20,680 per tonne, up RMB 105 per tonne or 0.51per cent from the previous close.
Trading volume was 617 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions. Technical indicators suggest the AD2512 futures contract is in a short-term bullish trend, with the moving averages in a bullish alignment providing strong support, and the price stabilising and rebounding above the support level; however, attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance level at 20,775.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on October 28, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretically traded at a premium of RMB 580 per tonne to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2512) at 10:15.
Warrant Report: SHFE data showed that on October 28, the total registered warrant volume for cast aluminium alloy was 48,836 tonne, an increase of 118 tonne from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,244 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 14,303 tonne, an increase of 177 tonne from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 8,474 tonne, an increase of 213 tonne from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 16,801 tonne, a decrease of 272 tonne from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 5,014 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 0 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Aluminium Scrap: On Tuesday, the spot primary aluminium price was flat from the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at RMB 21,160 per tonne; aluminium scrap market prices overall held steady. Baled UBC was mainly offered at RMB 16,000-16,500 per tonne (ex-tax), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was mainly offered at RMB 17,500-18,000 per tonne (ex-tax). Baled UBC rose RMB 50 per tonne m-o-m, while shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap each rose RMB 100 per tonne m-o-m.
Due to improved demand from downstream alloy sectors, aluminium tense scrap prices rose accordingly, with collective price increases for aluminium tense scrap series in Jiangxi, Hubei, Foshan, Anhui, Hunan, and other regions, ranging from RMB 100-200 yuan. The aluminium scrap market is expected to hold up well this week, closely tracking primary aluminium trends and policy developments.
Silicon Metal: (1) Price: Spot silicon metal prices remained low and stagnant. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at RMB 9,300-9,400 per tonne, flat from the previous day. Futures prices fluctuated; the SI2512 contract hit a low of RMB 8,975 per tonne and closed at RMB 8,980 per tonne at the end of the session, flat from the previous day. (2) Production: Operating rates of silicon enterprises diverged between the north and the south. As the dry season approaches in Sichuan and Yunnan, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan recently implemented production cuts, and silicon metal supply showed a downward trend.
Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 aluminium alloy was quoted at USD 2,560–2,590per tonne, while the domestic spot aluminium price rose by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 20,500–20,700 per tonne, with the immediate import loss hovering around RMB 200 per tonne. Local ADC12 aluminium alloy in Thailand was quoted at 83.5 baht/kg, excluding tax.
Inventory side: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 48,465 tonne on October 29, up 190 tonne from the previous trading day but down 637 tonne w-o-w (compared to October 22).
Summary: On Tuesday, the SMM A00 aluminium price was quoted at RMB 21,160 per tonne, flat from the previous day, while the SMM ADC12 price held steady at RMB 21,200 per tonne. Currently, the tight supply-demand balance for aluminium scrap persists, procurement costs continue to climb, and enterprises are generally purchasing at high prices to ensure order fulfilment, with low-priced sources being scarce.
Due to insufficient raw material circulation, high raw material costs eroding profits, and unclear policies in regions such as Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and ongoing order delivery pressure, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost support and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminium alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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