Futures: The most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2511 contract opened at RMB 20,355 per tonne overnight, hitting a high of RMB 20,425 per tonne and a low of RMB 20,340 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,405 per tonne, up RMB 40 per tonne, or 0.20 per cent, from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,412 lots, and open interest was 4,091 lots, with the increase mainly driven by bulls.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on September 10, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price to the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2511) at the 10:15 closing price was RMB 535 per tonne.
Aluminium scrap: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminium prices saw a slight correction from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at RMB 20,750 per tonne, while aluminium scrap market prices held steady overall. As the traditional peak season begins, orders at some downstream scrap utilisation enterprises recovered, but tight supply remains the main theme in the aluminium scrap market, keeping procurement prices high. Today, baled UBC was mainly offered at RMB 15,550-16,050 per tonne (tax excluded), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was mainly offered at RMB 17,300-17,800 per tonne (tax excluded). Baled UBC, shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminium scrap were flat w-o-w. Following last week's significant adjustment in aluminium tensile scrap recycling prices in Jiangxi, Hunan also raised offers this week, with a cumulative increase of RMB 400 per tonne. SMM expects that the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) will hover around RMB 17,200-17,700 per tonne, while baled UBC prices, supported by rigid demand, will fluctuate between RMB 15,500-16,000 per tonne. The market needs to closely monitor the progress of tax policy implementation and the actual recovery of consumption during the September peak season, as price trends will depend on the interplay between cost transmission and supply tightness.
Silicon metal: On September 10, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was at RMB 8,900-9,000 per tonne; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,000-9,200 per tonne; #521 at RMB 9,200-9,400 per tonne; #441 at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne; #421 at RMB 9,300-9,500 per tonne; #421 for silicone use at RMB 9,600-10,100 per tonne; #3303 at RMB 10,200-10,400 per tonne. Individual silicon prices in Huangpu Port and Tianjin were lower. Prices in Kunming, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Northwest China, and Shanghai held steady. Silicon (Si≥97per cent) prices also held steady today.
Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 offers are in the range of 2,500-2,530 USD per tonne, with import arbitrage maintained at around RMB 300 per tonne; local ADC12 tax-excluded offers in Thailand are temporarily at 83-84 THB per kg.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on September 10, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminium alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totalled 34,881 tonne, up 5 tonne from the previous trading day and up 954 tonne from last Wednesday (September 3).
Summary: Aluminium prices adjusted narrowly yesterday, with the market largely holding steady and adopting a wait-and-see approach. Since the beginning of September, downstream consumption has shown a mild recovery trend, with demand continuing to improve, though the characteristics of a traditional peak season have not yet fully emerged. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs, supported by costs, but further upside room may be limited due to factors such as the modest pace of demand recovery and an increase in social inventory. Going forward, the market needs to closely monitor raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, and the impact of policy changes.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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