Offsetting Middle East market pressure: Southeast Asia and Europe underpin prebaked anode export growth

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According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in March 2026 were 197,900 tonnes, up 2.75 per cent Y-o-Y and up 46.92 per cent M-o-M. The roughly calculated average export price of prebaked anodes in March was approximately USD 841.66 per tonne, up 7.06 per cent Y-o-Y and down 4.12 per cent M-o-M. China's cumulative prebaked anode exports in 2026 totalled 589,600 tonnes, up 1.20 per cent Y-o-Y.

By domestic export region, prebaked anode exports in March 2026 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Shandong ranked first with exports of 136,500 tonnes, accounting for 69 per cent of the total; followed by Hunan with exports of 20,700 tonnes (11 per cent), and then Jiangsu with exports of 16,000 tonnes (8 per cent).

By destination country, China's prebaked anode exports in March 2026 were primarily to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Iceland, accounting for approximately 54 per cent of total exports. Exports to Malaysia were approximately 45,400 tonnes (23 per cent of total exports), down 20.32 per cent Y-o-Y; exports to Indonesia were approximately 33,900 tonnes (17 per cent of total exports), up 62.42 per cent YoY; and exports to Iceland were 28,700 tonnes (14 per cent of total), up 170.89 per cent YoY.

In Q1 2026, China's prebaked anode export orders performed moderately overall, with total exports up slightly by 1.20 per cent YoY. The core driver supporting orders came from the Southeast Asian market: concentrated commissioning of new aluminium capacity and partial capacity recovery at enterprises in Indonesia and Malaysia fuelled explosive growth in prebaked anode demand, making the region the core engine of export growth. Meanwhile, demand from European countries such as France, Spain, and Norway surged significantly, reflecting the continuously strengthening competitiveness of Chinese products in high-end markets. However, since Q1, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led some aluminium enterprises to announce production cuts or suspensions. Combined with improved local prebaked anode supporting capabilities, demand from traditional export markets such as the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman contracted notably, exerting certain pressure on China's prebaked anode exports.

Overall, amid the structural adjustment of shifting regional demand globally, China's prebaked anode exports could offset the pressure of declining demand from the traditional Middle Eastern market through market structure optimization and a shift in order centre toward Southeast Asia and Europe. Combined with China's stable capacity and supply chain advantages, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain level of growth for the full year.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.