According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in December 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.9 per cent Y-o-Y and 4.0 per cent m-o-m. The overall operating rate of downstream enterprises showed a downward trend during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminium also declined, dropping 0.8 percentage points m-o-m to 76.5 per cent, a decrease larger than expected at the beginning of the month.
{alcircleadd}The main reasons include: 1. The impact of the traditional off-season exceeded expectations; 2. aluminium prices fluctuated at highs, further pressuring downstream profits; 3. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions continued to intensify, with the extent exceeding initial expectations. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminium data, China's aluminium casting ingot volume in December decreased by 13.4per cent Y-o-Y but increased by 7.7per cent m-o-m.
Capacity Changes: As of the end of December, SMM statistics show that China's existing aluminium capacity was approximately 46.209 million tonnes, and operating aluminium capacity was approximately 44.608 million tonnes.
(SMM made revisions after considering capacity replacement and old plant dismantling, excluding some double-counted capacity.)
Production Forecast: Entering January 2026, operating aluminium capacity is expected to increase m-o-m, with some new aluminium projects expected to stabilise and ramp up production. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminium, downstream demand is marginally weakening. Affected by the marginal weakening of downstream demand and high aluminium prices, enterprises' willingness to cast ingots is strengthening, and the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to decline. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is projected to decrease by 1.4 percentage points to 75.1 per cent.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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