According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in November 2025 (30 days) increased 1.47 per cent YoY, but decreased 2.82 per cent MoM. Starting in November, aluminium gradually transitioned from peak consumption season to off-season, downstream operating rates showed a downward trend, and the proportion of liquid aluminium declined. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminium fell 0.5 percentage points M-o-M to 77.3 per cent, a smaller drop than expected at the start of the month.
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Main reasons: 1) Production capacity of supporting processing plants near some aluminium smelters increased further, raising the proportion of liquid aluminium; 2) In the second half of November, aluminium prices retreated from highs, aluminium billet processing fees strengthened, and billet plants showed good willingness to produce. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminium data, domestic aluminium casting ingot volume in November decreased 13.4 per cent YoY and decreased 0.78 per cent M-o-M to around 828,000 tonnes.
Capacity changes: By the end of November, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminium capacity was about 45.87 million tonnes, and domestic operating aluminium capacity was about 44.225 million tonnes.
Production forecast: Entering December 2025, operating aluminium capacity is expected to increase slightly MoM. Some new aluminium projects are expected to commence commissioning from the end of 2025 to early 2026; related commissioning progress needs attention.
Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminium, market feedback suggests that downstream demand is marginally weakening, and enterprises' expectations for casting ingots have strengthened. However, it is reported that in December, some scrap utilisation enterprises, facing difficulties in procuring aluminium scrap or high purchase prices, are choosing to procure more liquid aluminium, which is expected to push the proportion of liquid aluminium against the trend.
Additionally, the production capacity of supporting processing plants near individual smelters is coming online, expected to boost the proportion. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is forecast to drop 0.7 percentage points to 76.6 per cent. Subsequent attention should be paid to substitution related to primary aluminium replacing scrap aluminium, and changes in the operating rates of downstream processing plants.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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