Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since February 28 are likely to disrupt primary aluminium production there and cause additional alumina cargoes to be redirected to markets outside the region including China, according to Mysteel's recent analytical report on the commodity.
The Middle East's six major aluminium-producing countries – namely Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman – have a combined primary aluminium capacity of approximately 6.92 million tonnes per year, accounting for about 9 per cent of global output, Mysteel learned.
Given that producing one tonne of primary aluminium requires roughly 1.92 tonnes of alumina, total alumina demand from the primary aluminium sectors in these six countries is estimated at around 13.3 million tonnes annually, according to Mysteel's analyst. However, the region's alumina production capacity stands at only about 4.35 million t/y, leading to an annual import requirement of approximately 8.9 million tonnes.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt the transportation of energy and raw materials, including imported alumina required by the primary aluminium smelters, the report said. This could result in feedstock shortages and force smelters to curb primary aluminium output. Countries such as Bahrain, Qatar and Oman which are heavily reliant on imported alumina would face particularly high risks of supply disruption.
In addition, continued military attacks launched by the United States, Israel and Iran could further undermine smelting operations across the region. Persistent missile attacks may prompt more producers to scale back or suspend output, the report warned.
A decline in regional primary aluminium production, combined with disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, will produce a parallel decline in the Middle East's demand for imported alumina, further exacerbating the oversupply of alumina in the global market.
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As the Middle East is one of destinations for Chinese alumina exports, weaker demand from the region would likely increase alumina availability in China. In 2025, China exported 175,870 tonnes of alumina to the six Middle Eastern countries, accounting for 6.9 per cent of its total alumina exports, data from the country's General Administration of Customs showed.
Australia, India and several Southeast Asian countries are the Middle East's primary alumina suppliers. If shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted for an extended period, cargoes originally destined for the region may be diverted to alternative markets, including China. Such redirection would further lift domestic supply and put downward pressure on domestic Chinese alumina prices, the report suggested.
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Note: This article has been issued by Mysteel and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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