MYSTEEL: China's primary aluminium supply-demand balance may tighten in 2026

In 2025, the total supply of primary aluminium in China, including both domestic production and imports, reached an estimated 46.64 million tonnes, up 3.1 per cent from the previous year, Mysteel estimated.

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Mysteel's regular tracking of the 89 primary aluminium smelters across China shows that their total production in 2025 rose by 2.7 per cent on year to register 44.4 million tonnes, though the growth rate slowed from a 4.1 per cent increase recorded in 2024. Their average capacity utilisation rate also picked up by 1.7 percentage points on a year to reach 97 per cent last year, according to the survey results. These smelters hold 100 per cent of the country's primary aluminium capacity.

Imports contributed more significantly to the growth of primary aluminium supply last year. China's net imports of primary aluminium jumped by 11.3 per cent on year to 2.24 million tonnes in 2025, according to data from the country's General Administration of Customs. Total imports stood at 2.54 million tonnes, while exports amounted to 297,567 tonnes, the data showed.