Limited commissioning of new projects leads to slow growth in aluminium production in 2025

Approaching year-end, looking back at the whole year of 2025, China's operating aluminium capacity has further approached the ceiling of compliant capacity. However, few new projects were commissioned during the year, resulting in limited capacity growth. Boosted by earlier production cuts due to losses and the gradual resumption of production from technological transformation projects, China's aluminium production in 2025 is still expected to achieve a y-o-y growth rate of 1.7 per cent.

China by Province:

Sichuan's operating capacity increased by 255,000 tonnes compared to the end of 2024, mainly because some aluminium enterprises incurred losses and implemented production cuts and maintenance due to high alumina costs at the end of 2024. These enterprises gradually resumed production from February to April 2025, with a total resumed capacity of 255,000 tonnes. Additionally, individual enterprises in Guangxi underwent technological transformation due to losses at the end of 2024 and started restarting cells from August to September 2025, contributing a total resumed capacity of 100,000 tonnes.

During 2025, some aluminium capacity was relocated from Shandong to Yunnan, reducing Shandong's operating aluminium capacity by 740,000 tonnes compared to the end of 2024, with all related capacity transferred to Yunnan. Additionally, an aluminium smelter in Yunnan resumed production of 30,000 tonnes of previously idle capacity, bringing Yunnan's total operating capacity to an increase of 770,000 tonnes compared to the end of 2024.

In addition, the following changes in operating aluminium capacity occurred in 2025 in China:

1. The commissioning of a relocation and upgrade project at an aluminium smelter in Qinghai added 100,000 tonnes of operating capacity.
2. The completion of a previous technological transformation at an aluminium smelter in Guizhou led to the resumption of production, increasing capacity by 53,000 tonnes.

Overall, China's operating aluminium capacity in 2025 increased by 538,000 tonnes compared to the end of 2024. With the further manifestation of production growth from some newly commissioned capacities in 2024, China's aluminium production in 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 700,000–800,000 tonnes.

 Looking ahead, from the end of 2025 into 2026, a new project at an aluminium smelter in Xinjiang is expected to be commissioned, with a projected net increase in existing capacity of 200,000 tonne; a new project at an aluminium smelter in Inner Mongolia is expected to be commissioned, with a projected net increase in existing capacity of 350,000 tonne; an aluminium smelter in Henan is expected to relocate some capacity to Inner Mongolia, and after commissioning, this is projected to result in a net increase in operating capacity due to the utilization of some idle capacity indicators; a relocation and upgrade project at an aluminium smelter in Shanxi is expected to contribute a net increase in operating capacity.

Regions outside China, operating capacity as of now has increased by approximately 500,000 tonnes compared to the end of 2024. Details are as follows:

Capacity increases:

1. Production resumptions at three aluminium smelters owned by a German enterprise are progressing steadily, expected to contribute 150,000 tonnes of operating capacity growth for the full year.
2. An aluminium smelter in Spain resumed production. Although the process was temporarily halted due to a power outage, it subsequently resumed and is expected to reach full capacity in 2026.
3. In Indonesia, an aluminium plant launched the second phase of its project in 2024 but suspended operations due to cost issues. The capacity reached full production in 2025. Two new aluminium smelter projects are scheduled to commence their first phases by the end of 2025, with full capacity expected in 2026. Total capacity growth in Indonesia amounts to approximately 650,000 tonnes.
4. An aluminium plant in Malaysia implemented production cuts in 2024 due to an accident. The related capacity resumed operations in Q1 2025, contributing 100,000 tonnes of operating capacity growth.
5. A new aluminium smelter project in Angola is expected to be energised by the end of 2025, adding 120,000 tonnes of existing capacity.
6. An aluminium plant in New Zealand resumed production. It had cut production in 2024 in response to energy shortages and resumed in 2025. However, due to persistent power supply risks in 2025, the resumption was suspended. Current operating capacity has increased by 80,000 tonnes.
7. An aluminium plant in Brazil continues to push for production resumption, contributing around 70,000 tonnes of operating capacity growth within the year.

Capacity reductions:

1. In October 2025, an aluminium plant in Iceland temporarily halted one production line due to electrical equipment failure, involving an annual capacity of 210,000 tonnes.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.