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31 JULY 2026 SMM

July’s increase in aluminium’s proportion of liquid aluminium exceeded expectations, and August is expected to edge up

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Aluminium ingot

The image used in this article is generated with an AI tool and does not depict any real-time moment

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in July 2026 (31 days) increased 1.6 per cent Y-o-Y; and 3.5 per cent M-o-M. Domestic demand was weak, and combined with a pullback in export orders for some downstream products, all industry chain segments were under pressure; however, driven by high processing fees for aluminium  rod and billet, downstream procurement demand for liquid aluminium  rose, pushing the proportion of liquid aluminium  output in China higher.

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The proportion of liquid aluminium in the month rose 1.1 percentage points M-o-M to 78.3 per cent, slightly exceeding expectations at the start of the month, with core growth coming from strong processing profits for some products, leading to higher-than-expected demand for liquid aluminium.

Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminium calculations, China's aluminium casting ingot production in July fell 15.1 per cent YoY and 1.4 per cent M-o-M.

Capacity changes: As of month-end July, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminium capacity was approximately 46.29 million tonnes, flat M-o-M.

Production forecast: Entering August 2026, the traditional off-season for downstream continues, and demand for most downstream products is expected to further weaken. However, some primary processed material orders are performing well, boosting downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase liquid aluminium directly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to rise 0.2 percentage points to 78.5 per cent.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data. 


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