On November 26, the Shanghai Metals Expo (SME) 2025, organised by Shanghai Metals Market, wrapped up successfully in Shanghai!

During the conference, 1,000+ global industry leaders and experts conducted in-depth discussions on key issues across the entire metals industry chain, covering core dimensions such as market outlook, industry chain competition, trading strategies, and green transformation.

The conference featured multiple panel discussions and seminars, including:

• The New Ecosystem of Bulk Commodities Integrating Spot and Futures Markets, Finance, and Industry, and How the Eastern Pricing Centre Will Benefit the Global Metal Industry;
• Decoding Copper and Aluminium Price Dynamics
• Warehousing and Logistics Innovation Driving Sustainable Industrial Development.

Guest Speech

2025 SMM Base Metals Year-End Strategy Conference

Speech: Market Outlook for Base Metals in 2026

Guest Speaker: Frank Liu, Director of Big Data, Shanghai Metals Market

Speech: Analysis of the Competitive Landscape in the Aluminium Industry Chain from a Dual-Dimensional Perspective

Guest Speaker: Xizhi Yao, Chief Analyst, General Manager of Market Research Centre,

China Aluminium International Trading Group Co., Ltd.

• The impact mechanism of resource supply landscape restructuring on the price fluctuations of nickel, cobalt, and lithium
• Material demand restructuring driven by battery technology iteration and inter-temporal/cross-product price spread strategies
• The impact of regional green barriers on the cost curve and price spread structure of nickel, cobalt, and lithium
• Cost structure reshaping and cross-link profit strategies in the vertical integration of the industry chain

Moderator:

Maria Ma, Head of Research in the New Energy Industry, Shanghai Metals Market

Panelists:

Yunhu Zhao, Deputy General Manager, Nantong Reshine New Material Co., Ltd.

Jiayan He, Vice President, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Industry Group Co., Ltd.

Xiaoshan Tan, Director of LFP Material Development, Guangzhou Great Power Energy and Technology Co., Ltd.

Trading Strategy Interview (Copper, Aluminum, Tin): Global Macroeconomic Outlook and Its Impact On Metal Market

• The Impact of Anti-globalisation Challenges on Copper, Aluminum, and Tin Arbitrage between Futures and Spot Markets
• The Impact of Geopolitical Challenges on the Development of Copper, Aluminum, and Tin Markets
• Impact of Industry Chain Localisation on the Development of Copper and Aluminum Industries
• The Impact of Mining Protectionism on the Cost Side of Copper, Aluminum, and Tin

Moderator:

Shum Long, Deputy General Manager, South China Office, Shanghai Metals Market

Panelists:

Heng Zhang, General Manager, Western Mining Co., Ltd. Marketing Branch

Hongyan Ni, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Xiongjun Chen, Deputy General Manager, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd.

Speech: Green and Low Carbon — The Development Path of Base Metals Under the "Dual Carbon" Goals

Guest Speaker: Yuan Tian, Key Account Manager, Sungrow Renewables Development Co., Ltd.

Speech: Some Suggestions on the Terms of Lead and Zinc Ore Import Contracts

Guest Speaker: Jingjuan Zhang, Manager of Shaanxi Soft Micro Trading Co., Ltd.

Contract Pricing Terms | Conventional Pricing Operations | Buyer Pricing

The LME cash settlement price is used; the futures 3M price is priced, and then adjusted according to the QP.

Existing Issues

After all, LME visible inventory is very low, and fund speculation forcing short-covering or soft squeezes causes the LME cash settlement price to exceed the 3M price, forming a high backwardation.

Strategies

It is recommended to stipulate in the contract that when the LME cash settlement price is higher than the 3M price, the 3M price shall be used as the final settlement price at the time of pricing.

It is recommended to add a clause:

When the LME cash settlement price is higher than the 3M price, the 3M price shall be used as the final contract settlement price at the time of pricing.

Panel: Trading Opportunities in the Lead and Zinc Market in 2026

• How do you view the opportunities in the price spread between futures contracts for lead and zinc?
• Given the expected increase in zinc production by domestic smelters in 2026, how can one seize the domestic and overseas arbitrage opportunities?
• What is the expected outlook for zinc processing in 2026, and when will the increase in mine production materialize?
• With significant fluctuations in the SHFE/LME price ratio, what are the opportunities for importing and exporting lead-zinc ore/ingots in 2026?
• With the simultaneous implementation of policies to boost domestic demand and increase overseas tariffs, is there a promising outlook for lead-zinc consumption in 2026?

Moderator:

Wenming Xia, Senior Analyst, Lead and Zinc Industry Research,

Shanghai Metals Market

Panelists:

Chunlin Wu, Deputy Manager, Chihong Industrial Development (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Jingjuan Zhang, Manager, Shaanxi Soft Micro Trading Co., Ltd.

Xiaomei Zhang, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Xiaoyan Zhou, Lead and Zinc Manager, Sanshui Industrial Co., Ltd.

Zihang Zeng, Research Director of Supply Chain Centre, Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd.

Weixin Shen, Chairman, Jiangsu Haibao New Energy Co., Ltd.

Speech: Analysis of the Current Situation and "Hot Topics" in the Consumer Market of the Zinc Industry in 2025

Guest Speaker: Ping Luo, Researcher, Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd.

Current Status and Hot Topics in the Zinc Industry Consumer Market

Differentiated Performance of Chinese Demand

Excluding durable goods, other consumer sectors such as real estate and infrastructure, based on the current situation, it is difficult to expect a fundamental turnaround.

Real estate is constrained by high levels of pending sale area, and is expected to remain poor in 2026.

Infrastructure procurement, fixed asset investment growth showed a pull back in H2 this year, funding for key projects also experienced a slowdown, infrastructure in 2026 is more reliant on government investment.

Domestic zinc apparent consumption is projected to grow 0 per cent-1 per cent in 2025.

Speech: China's Lead-Zinc Market Under the US Reciprocal Tariffs

Guest Speaker: Zhaoming Shen, Director of Research Institute, CITIC Futures Co., Ltd.

2025 Lead Market Review

Lead prices generally exhibited a volatile upward trend in 2025, with high scrap battery prices providing solid bottom support. Since 2025, increased trade-in funds have stimulated e-bike and auto sales, the implementation of Document No. 770 has reduced operating rates at some regional secondary lead smelters, and US Fed interest rate cuts, along with eased China-US trade relations, have all contributed to periodic strength in lead prices.

2025 Zinc Market Review

The zinc ingot oversupply materialised relatively smoothly in 2025, leading to a gradual decline in the SHFE zinc price centre. However, in Q3, expectations of domestic "anti-involution" policies triggered a sharp rise in ferrous metal prices, prompting galvanised product traders to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn. Simultaneously, influenced by the decline in the US dollar index, the SHFE zinc price centre stopped falling and stabilised since Q3. Nonetheless, due to low zinc smelting TC Benchmark in 2025, overseas zinc smelters had weak incentives to increase production. LME zinc inventory continued to draw down, triggering a short squeeze. Combined with a weaker US dollar index providing more significant support to LME zinc, LME zinc prices first declined and then rose during 2025.

Guest Speaker: Zhen Han, Senior Manager of Lead & Zinc Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market

Zhen Han shared insights on the topic "How will the prices of lead and zinc evolve in 2026 amid supply-demand mismatch?". She pointed out that looking ahead to 2026, the global zinc concentrate market is expected to shift to a tight supply situation, while the zinc ingot market may see a significant oversupply. For the lead market, SMM expects the current global refined lead market to be in a state of tight supply, with the lead market likely to show a slight oversupply in 2026, with the surplus mainly concentrated domestically.

SME 2025 - Main Forum

Speech: Global Macroeconomic Trend Forecast and Market Outlook

Guest Speaker: Zhenhai Hou, Founder and Chief Strategist, Hanwuji (Shanghai) Management Consulting Co., Ltd.

Speech: Current Status and Future Trends in the Supply and Demand of Global Non-Ferrous Metal Mineral Resources

Guest Speaker: Qing Zhu, Professor, China University of Geosciences

Speech: Current Situation and Future of New Energy as a New Growth Engine for Industrial Development

Guest Speaker: Haihua Cao, Chief Analyst, Changjiang Securities Co., Ltd.

Current Status: Outstanding Global Competitiveness, Profitability Under Pressure Due to Supply-Demand Imbalance

Rapid Demand Growth, Rapid Supply Expansion

Ø Since 2020, global "carbon neutrality" initiatives have commenced, ushering in an era of major development for new energy. Global new PV installations in 2025 are expected to approach 600 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% over the past five years.

Ø The electrification of new energy vehicles has driven explosive growth in the lithium battery industry chain. The global lithium battery penetration rate increased from 2% in 2018 to over 20% in H1 2025. Coupled with the rapid increase in ESS installations, global lithium battery demand has achieved steady growth.

Panel Discussion: The New Ecosystem of Bulk Commodities Integrating Spot and Futures Markets, Finance, and Industry, and How the Eastern Pricing Centre Will Benefit the Global Metal Industry

Moderator:

Catherine Zhang, LME Vice President of Business Development, London Metal Exchange

Panelists:

Ryan Dong, Chairman & General Manager, SMM Trading Centre Co., Ltd.

Liangxin Liu, General Manager, Shanghai Jintian Copper Co., Ltd.

Xiongjun Chen, Deputy General Manager, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd.

Ye Li, Assistant to the President, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Eric Medel, Market Insights and Strategy Expert, Codelco

Speech: Warehousing and Logistics Innovation Driving Sustainable Development of the Metals Industry

Guest Speaker: Yichen Li, General Manager, SIPG i-Warehousing (Shanghai) Warehouse Management Co., Ltd.

Self-Owned Resources—Warehouse Yards

Futures Delivery Resources

• Designated delivery warehouse by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange.

• "SIPG i-Warehousing," which is a comprehensive integrated information platform for bulk commodities

• Provides warehousing, transportation, and upstream/downstream supply chain services for non-ferrous metals and plastics.

•Warehouse Qualifications: Non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel), ferrous metals (rebar, hot-rolled coil), international copper, natural rubber, PP polypropylene, PE polyethene, PVC polyvinyl chloride.

Speech Topic: Technology and Data-Driven, Trade and Finance Integration, Empowering a New Ecosystem for the Non-Ferrous Industry

Guest Speaker: Ryan Dong, Chairman and General Manager of SMM Trading Centre Co., Ltd.

SMM Trading Center's Tenth Anniversary, A New Phase

Achievement 1: Overview: Initial Establishment of the Trading Center Ecosystem

Achievement 2: Tool - The "Anhuida Platform" Significantly Enhances Bulk Commodity Trade

Utilising technical means, full-process online enhancement of trade security and efficiency, transaction efficiency improved by 5-10 times

Speech Topic: Financial Infrastructure Empowers Industry Chain Upgrades and Drives Value Innovation: An Introduction to the Commodity Clearing Business of Shanghai Clearing House.

Guest Speaker: Xu Wang, Senior Manager of Business Department Three III, Shanghai Clearing House

Speech Topic: New Energy Powers Industrial Transformation: Shaping Green Competitiveness in the Nonferrous Metals Sector

Guest Speaker: Jinqiang Wang, Director of Zero-Carbon Integrated Energy Business Development, Envision

Speech Topic: Financial Instruments and Policies to Support Risk Management in the Metal Industry

Guest Speaker: Ting Li, Investment Consulting Department Manager, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures Co., Ltd.

Cyclical Nature: Industries experience cyclical fluctuations, leading to significant volatility in corporate profits. They are highly sensitive to the macroeconomy and heavily reliant on policies.

Profit Distribution in the Industry Chain Model: Both procurement costs and sales revenue are subject to fluctuations. Traditional procurement and pricing models are prone to creating price scissors. Profit distribution within the industry chain resembles a zero-sum game, intensifying conflicts over profit allocation.

Controlling Production and Operating Costs: Cost control in procurement, inventory, and sales management. The conflict between overstocking during peak seasons and destocking during off-seasons.

Nov 25

2025 SME Metals Future Outlook Seminar - Insights・Strategy・Tomorrow

Special thanks to supporters CME Group & Marex

Opening Remarks

Leaders from CME Group delivered a thematic presentation at the salon, providing a systematic explanation of core topics such as the CME Group metal contract system and market correlation logic.

Panel Discussion: Decoding Copper and Aluminium Prices and Base Metal Market Trends

Moderator:

Charles Ci, Copper Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market

Panelists:

Noel Ruan, Managing Director, Jin Li Industrial International Pte. Ltd.

Anant Jatia, Founder & CIO, Greenland Investment Management

Patrick Seymour, Global Co-Head of Metals Market Making, Marex

Mingxin Guo, Aluminum Senior Analyst, Shanghai Metals Market

The fluctuations in the prices of copper and aluminium, which are the cornerstone of the industrial economy, not only affect cost transmission along the industry chain but also profoundly reflect changes in the global macro economy and the supply-demand pattern. During the interview session, the guests engaged in a lively discussion focused on the theme "Decoding Copper and Aluminium Prices and Base Metal Market Trends."

Market Analysis in Marex: Weathering Commodity Market Challenges by Marex — How To Lead Through Counterparty Risk Management

Guest Speaker: Winnie Fok, Head of Credit Risk in APAC, Marex

Winnie Fok systematically shared insights across multiple dimensions of commodity market risk management, covering the full-chain logic from the current market landscape and core challenges to solutions and industry benchmarks.

Panel Discussion: The Metal Industry in Energy Transition—Challenges and Prospects

Moderator:

Ling Zhou, Head of APAC Commercial Client Coverage, CME Group

Panelists:

Maria Ma, Head of New Energy Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market

Kingsley Zhu, Trader-Lithium & Cobalt, Discovering Resource

Thomas Feng, Head of Nickel Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market

Shanshan Cao, Senior Analyst, COFCO Futures (International) Co., Ltd.

The global energy transition is currently in a critical phase of deep advancement. The base metal market is undergoing a role transformation as both an "industrial necessity and strategic resource." The evolving demand and rising value of metals such as copper, aluminium, lithium, nickel, and cobalt in the new energy sector are profoundly reshaping the industrial landscape and impacting global supply chains. The panellists in an enthusiastic and in-depth discussion centred on the core theme of "The Metal Industry in Energy Transition—Challenges and Prospects."

Speech Topic: SMM Copper Market Insights: Data Edge & Market Outlook

Guest Speaker: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Analyst (Copper & Multi-Metals), SMM Global UK

In his presentation, Shairaz Ahmed deeply integrated SMM's unique data and exclusive indices, leveraging SMM's entire industry chain product matrix to analyse the operational logic and future trends of the copper market from multiple dimensions and a panoramic perspective. Specifically, the analysis comprehensively covered key sections such as core market indicators, macroeconomic environment, supply-demand pattern, market balance, and price forecasts.

The SME 2025 has concluded successfully!

Thank you for your attention and support to this conference~ We'll meet again next year!

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.