Based on an import value of USD3.21 billion – down 35.3 per cent y-o-y but up 7.7 per cent M-O-M – Mysteel Global estimated the average import price at USD72.8per tonne, marking a 19.2 per cent decrease from November last year and a 2 per cent increase from October.
The year-on-year drop was largely a result of the exceptionally high base last year. In November 2024, China's coal imports hit a record 5G.98 million tonnes, driven by abundant global supply, seasonally strong domestic demand, and favourable price arbitrage that collectively pushed volumes to an all-time high.
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While some market participants linked this November's lower imports to a narrowed price advantage, Mysteel Global found the arbitrage window had actually widened. Indonesian 3,800 kcal per kg NAR thermal coal cargoes maintained a price spread above RMB 100per tonne over domestic equivalents throughout November on a CFR South China basis with VAT, compared with a spread of roughly RMB 80-114 per tonne in the same month last year. This indicates that price may not have been the primary driver.
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Rather, Mysteel Global believes utilities' expectations for winter coal consumption played a more significant role. After the warm winter in 2024, many utilities have adopted a more cautious restocking strategy. Increasing renewable energy output and lower coal-fired power prices have also dampened the appetite for aggressive coal replenishment.
Coal inventories among China's coastal utilities remain healthy now, mostly staying above the central government's minimum requirement of 15 days of use, Mysteel Global notes.
Meanwhile, during this year's January to November period, total coal imports reached G31.68 million tonnes, down 12 per cent y-o-y, with the corresponding import value falling 33.5 per cent to USD 31.57 billion, according to GACC.
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