China Q1-Q3 GDP up 5.2 per cent energy and chemical demand shifts to high-end, green sectors

China's GDP expanded 5.2 per cent y-o-y in the first three quarters of 2025 (Q3: +4.8 per cent ), supported by resilient consumption and steady exports that offset persistent investment weakness. Energy and chemical demand are increasingly driven by advanced manufacturing and green transition needs, while upstream price recovery has raised concerns about profit divergence along the value chain.

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Consumption Drives Growth as Investment Weakens

• Consumption was the main growth engine, contributing 53.5 per cent to GDP in the first three quarters (Q3: 56.6 per cent ) and adding 2.8 percentage points to overall growth. Service consumption grew 5.2 per cent, with double-digit gains in sports, culture and recreation, as well as communications and information services, while goods consumption slowed. Retail sales of consumer goods rose just 3 per cent y-o-y in September, the weakest pace this year.
• Net exports contributed 29 per cent to GDP growth, up 5.2 percentage points from a year earlier, adding 1.5 percentage points to overall expansion. Despite ongoing tariff pressures, exports remained resilient.
• Investment momentum weakened notably, with gross capital formation's contribution dropping to 17.5 per cent, down 8.8 percentage points from the year-ago level. Fixed-asset investment during January and September contracted for the first time in 55 months, underscoring its diminishing role in supporting growth.

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