As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market trading sentiment remains sluggish

SHFE aluminium 2602 contract fluctuated with small gains in the morning session, but the price centre edged down slightly compared with the previous trading day. Affected by the approaching Chinese New Year, overall market trading sentiment was weak, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at the average price to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne. Today, the East China market shipment sentiment index was 2.3, down 0.4 w-o-w; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.29, down 0.21 w-o-w. SMM A00 aluminium closed at RMB 23,260 per tonne, down RMB 30 per tonne from the previous trading day, at a discount of RMB 190 per tonne against the 2602 contract, flat from the previous trading day.

Transactions in the central China market remained sluggish today. As the Chinese New Year approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises has basically ended, with only a small amount of just-in-time procurement. Major suppliers also gradually entered the Chinese New Year break, resulting in limited spot aluminium supply in the market. However, some traders bought the dip and stockpiled, driving transaction prices higher throughout the session, from a premium of RMB 10 per tonne against the central China price before the opening to a premium of RMB 50 per tonne.

The main transaction range was concentrated between a premium of RMB 10 per tonne and RMB 30 per tonne against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.56, down 0.16 w-o-w; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.14, down 0.02 w-o-w. SMM central China aluminium closed at RMB 23,160 per tonne, down RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day, at a discount of RMB 290 per tonne against the 2602 contract, up RMB 20 per tonne from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -RMB 100 per tonne, narrowing RMB 20 per tonne from the previous trading day.

On the inventory side, aluminium ingot inventories in major consumption areas increased by 4,000 tonnes w-o-w today, with the main sources of inventory buildup being Guangdong and Wuxi. In the short term, high aluminium prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, and coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year break on downstream sectors, aluminium ingots still face inventory buildup risks. Spot premiums per discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.