April secondary aluminium PMI data fell below 50 mark, off-season pressure in May expected to remain under pressure

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Futures: The AD2606 contract opened at RMB 23,010 per tonne in the night session, reaching a high of RMB 23,120 per tonne and a low of RMB 22,880 per tonne, closing at RMB 22,940 per tonne, down RMB 160 per tonne or 0.69 per cent from the previous settlement price. The night session overall moved downwards after a higher opening, with a slight recovery at the end. Trading volume was 3,835 lots, open interest was 8,709 lots, down 859 lots from the previous trading day. The MACD indicator showed red bars, indicating some release of short-term bearish sentiment.

Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on April 29, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of RMB 695 per tonne to the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2606) closing price at 10:15.

Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that on April 29, total registered warrants for cast aluminium alloy were 32,624 tonnes, up 421 tonnes from the previous trading day. Shanghai registered 1,822 tonnes (unchanged); Guangdong registered 10,878 tonnes (down 30 tonnes); Jiangsu registered 4,769 tonnes (up 392 tonnes); Zhejiang registered 9,506 tonnes (up 59 tonnes); Chongqing registered 4,143 tonnes (unchanged); Sichuan registered 1,506 tonnes (unchanged).

Industry dynamics: According to SMM data, the secondary aluminium industry PMI in April was 44.6 per cent, down 24.2 percentage points M-o-M, falling below the 50 mark again, indicating a notable contraction in industry prosperity. In May, affected by the off-season and the Labour Day holiday, the secondary aluminium industry PMI is expected to be under pressure and remain below the 50 mark.

Aluminum scrap: Yesterday, spot primary aluminium prices fluctuated slightly upward by RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day, while aluminium scrap prices remained largely stable with minor adjustments in some grades. Overall, supply-side policy constraints are unlikely to ease in the short term, with tight compliant supply and holders holding back from selling providing support, while the increasing probability of declining imports will further tighten supply. Demand side, the divergence between wrought aluminium alloy scrap and aluminium tense scrap downstream remained unchanged, with aluminium price fluctuations and lack of orders still suppressing purchase willingness. In the short term, the uncertain US-Iran conflict outlook, tight compliant supply, and expected decline in aluminium scrap imports are expected to support aluminium scrap prices to hold up well.

Silicon metal: On April 29, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was stable from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was stable; #521 was stable; #441 was stable; #421 was stable; #421 for silicone use was stable; #3303 was stable. Silicon prices in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, northwest China, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Kunming, and Shanghai remained stable. Silicon (Si≥97 per cent) prices also remained stable.

Markets outside China: Currently, ex-China ADC12 quotes were at the high end of the USD 3,320-3,400 per tonne range, with immediate import losses widening to around RMB 3,000, and the import window closed.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.