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Futures: Last Friday, SHFE aluminium night session closed at RMB 23,585  per tonne, up 0.98 per cent, fluctuating rangebound during the session. The price traded below the short-term moving averages, MA5 (23,610) and MA10 (24,118), under short-term pressure, but remained above the long-term MA60 (22,945.17), with the medium-term foundation intact. The MACD indicator's DIF (79.9094) and DEA (278.9238) showed a high-level death cross, with the histogram deeply negative (-398.0288), indicating significant downward momentum.

The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,400–24,000. LME aluminium night session closed at USD 3,110 per tonne, up 2.78 per cent, with notable gains. The price stood above MA60 (USD 2,991.28) but slightly below MA30 (USD 3,114.58), showing some repair in the medium-to-long-term structure, though short-term moving average pressure remains. The MACD indicator's DIF (14.0760) and DEA (36.3308) were in a death cross, but the negative histogram value (-44.5096) narrowed, suggesting weakening downward momentum. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is USD 3,080–USD 3,150.

Macro front: US President Trump signed an executive order threatening tariff hikes on countries purchasing goods and services from sanctioned Iran. The order took effect on February 7. It stated that the US deemed it necessary to impose tariffs, such as 25 per cent, on countries that directly or indirectly procure or import Iranian goods and services. (Bearish ★) The US announced a provisional trade agreement framework recently reached with India, under which India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial products and various food and agricultural items, while the US will lower the so-called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent. President Trump also signed an executive order deciding to cancel the additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports to the US, imposed based on India's direct or indirect imports of Russian oil, effective February 7. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: Supply side, domestic and overseas newly commissioned aluminium projects ramping up production pushed up the daily average production. Demand side, production end, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, downstream processing enterprises began holidays successively, leading to a decline in operating rates and weakening demand; the proportion of liquid aluminium dropped 8.6 percentage points w-o-w. Trading ended after the absolute aluminium price fell; traders' bullish sentiment supported increased procurement, spot discounts narrowed, and transactions showed a slight recovery. However, the social inventory buildup trend continued, with Monday's inventory up 21,000 tonnes from last Thursday, and inventory pressure gradually increasing; the post-holiday social inventory peak is expected to hit a new high in nearly three years.

Primary aluminium market: In the morning session, SHFE aluminium 2602 fluctuated downward, with the price centre lower than the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminium prices, overall market buying sentiment improved, leading to a narrowing of spot premiums and discounts across the market. The mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of RMB 10  per tonne to RMB 30  per tonne.

Last Friday, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.84, flat m-o-m; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.80, up 0.11 m-o-m. SMM A00 aluminium was quoted at RMB 23,340  per tonne, down RMB 420  per tonne from the previous trading day, at a discount of RMB 180  per tonne against the 2602 contract, up RMB 30  per tonne from the previous trading day. Last Friday, trading in the central China market tended to be sluggish. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, downstream processing plants are nearing completion of stockpiling, maintaining only small just-in-time procurement, with only some traders restocking on dips. Suppliers' willingness to collect payments by year-end weakened compared to the previous day, and market activity was sluggish. The actual transaction prices in the central China market finally hovered around parity to a premium of RMB 30  per tonne against the central China price. Last Friday, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.69, down 0.05 m-o-m; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.17, down 0.05 m-o-m. SMM central China closed at RMB 23,240  per tonne, down RMB 400  per tonne from the previous trading day, at a discount of RMB 280  per tonne against the 2602 contract, up RMB 50  per tonne from the previous trading day. The Henan-Shanghai price spread was -RMB 100  per tonne, narrowing by RMB 20  per tonne from the previous trading day.

Secondary aluminium raw materials: Last Friday, spot primary aluminium prices continued to pull back from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at RMB 23,140  per tonne. Aluminium scrap prices generally held steady or followed with slight declines last Friday. Last Friday, baled UBC scrap was mainly quoted at RMB 16,700-17,150  per tonne (ex-tax), and shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) was mainly quoted at RMB 18,900-19,600  per tonne (ex-tax). Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap: on February 6, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 3,360  per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tensile scrap in Foshan was RMB 2,554  per tonne. Recently, directly impacted by recycling policies and against the backdrop of high aluminium prices forcing scrap prices to follow upward, a situation of "nominal prices without actual transactions" has emerged.

Scrap utilisation enterprises in related provinces were forced to reduce or halt production, downstream purchasing sentiment was significantly dampened, and procurement was conducted as needed. Aluminium scrap prices are expected to hover at highs next week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) projected at RMB 19,000-19,800  per tonne (ex-tax). Before the holiday, repeated environmental protection-related controls in Anhui, Henan, Hebei, and other regions, combined with high aluminium prices, provided bottom support for aluminium scrap prices, while suppressed demand forced scrap utilisation enterprises and scrap yards to enter the holiday early. The pattern of "nominal prices without actual transactions" is difficult to change, and the overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues. Close monitoring is required on the production halts and operational rates of downstream processing enterprises and the implementation progress of environmental protection measures in various regions, remaining vigilant against the possibility of continued sluggish trading in the aluminium scrap market if aluminium prices pull back again.

Secondary aluminium alloy: On the futures side, the aluminium alloy 2603 contract opened at RMB 21,945  per tonne, intraday showing a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise and fluctuating downward. In early trading, prices rebounded slightly, driven by sentiment recovery, but faced significant resistance at the RMB 22,000–22,150  per tonne level, failing to hold above it effectively. In the afternoon, as bulls accelerated position reductions, prices gradually pulled back and retested the previous low area. Overall, short-term rebound momentum remains insufficient, with futures still in a weak consolidation phase following the high-level pullback, and funds are mainly reducing positions and adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the spot market, A00 aluminium prices fell by RMB 200  per tonne from the previous trading day to RMB 23,140  per tonne, while SMM ADC12 prices edged down by RMB 50  per tonne to RMB 23,550  per tonne.

Last Friday, secondary aluminium market quotations showed some divergence, with some enterprises choosing to hold steady and observe, while others lowered their offers by about RMB 100  per tonne. Driven by the price decline, downstream procurement mainly focused on restocking at lower levels, and transaction activity improved slightly compared to the previous period. On the supply side, as the Chinese New Year approaches, production schedules for secondary aluminium plants during the holiday period are gradually being clarified. Most enterprises plan to suspend production between February 5 and 13, with resumption times concentrated mainly after the eighth day of the lunar new year or after the Lantern Festival. The expected shutdown period ranges from 8 to 20 days, with the average shutdown duration extending by about 2 days y-o-y. The lengthened shutdown period is partly due to recent intensified aluminium price fluctuations and partly influenced by generally weaker downstream demand, as well as stricter policies and ongoing environmental protection-related controls. Overall, downstream demand continues to contract, and fundamental support for prices is marginally weakening. Before the holiday, secondary aluminium alloy prices are expected to consolidate weakly at high levels, with the price centre dropping back slightly.

Aluminium market summary: On the macro front, the US threat of tariff hikes on countries involved in trade with Iran will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite, creating headwinds for aluminium prices. On the supply side, newly commissioned aluminium projects domestically and overseas continue to ramp up production, with daily average production maintaining an upward trend, sustaining supply pressure. On the demand side, the market has entered the pre-Chinese New Year off-season, as downstream processing enterprises gradually begin holidays, leading to a decline in operating rates and noticeably weaker consumption from the production side. Currently, the pace of aluminium ingot inventory buildup is accelerating, and market expectations indicate that post-holiday inventory peaks will reach multi-year highs.

Visible inventory pressure is gradually becoming a key practical factor suppressing aluminium prices. In summary, influenced by earlier macro headwinds, substantial capital exited with profits, leading to a decline in aluminium prices and a reduction in open interest. However, as precious metals did not show further downward trends, aluminium prices stabilised accordingly. In the short term, aluminium prices are expected to consolidate.

铝锭累库压力渐增，铝价承压运行

期货市场：上周五，沪铝夜盘收报23,585元/吨，上涨0.98%，盘中维持区间震荡。期价运行于短期均线MA5（23,610）和MA10（24,118）下方，短期承压，但仍处长期均线MA60（22,945.17）之上，中期向好基础未变。MACD指标DIF（79.9094）与DEA（278.9238）形成高位死叉，柱状图负值加深（-398.0288），显示下行压力较大。预计沪铝主力合约核心运行区间为23,400-24,000元/吨。伦铝三月合约夜盘收报3,110美元/吨，上涨2.78%，涨幅较为明显。价格站上MA60（2,991.28美元），略低于MA30（3,114.58美元），中长期结构有所修复，但仍受短期均线压制。MACD指标DIF（14.0760）与DEA（36.3308）处于死叉状态，但负向柱状图（-44.5096）有所收窄，显示下行势头减弱。预计伦铝核心运行区间为3,080-3,150美元/吨。

宏观面：美国总统特朗普签署行政令，威胁对从受制裁的伊朗购买商品和服务的国家加征关税，该命令已于2月7日生效。命令指出，美国认为有必要对直接或间接采购、进口伊朗商品和服务的国家征收一定比例的关税，例如25%的关税。（偏空★）美国宣布近日与印度达成临时贸易协定框架，印度将取消或降低美国工业产品及多种农产品的关税，美国则将印度商品此前被加征的所谓“对等关税”税率从25%降至18%。此外，特朗普总统签署行政令，决定取消因印度直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油而对印输美商品加征的25%额外关税，自2月7日起生效。（偏多★）

基本面：供应端，国内外电解铝新投产能持续放量，推高日均产量。需求端，随着春节假期临近，下游加工企业陆续停产放假，开工率下降，需求转弱；铝液比例较上周下滑8.6个百分点。铝价绝对价格下跌后，贸易商看涨情绪支撑采购需求增加，现货贴水收窄，成交略有回暖。但社会库存延续累库趋势，周一库存较上周四增加2.1万吨，库存压力逐步加大；预计节后社会库存峰值将创近三年新高。

铝原市场：上周五早盘，沪铝2602合约震荡下行，价格重心较前一交易日走低。受铝价下跌影响，市场买方情绪整体好转，各地现货升贴水普遍收窄。主流成交价格对盘面升水10元/吨至升水30元/吨。华东市场出货情绪指数为2.84，环比持平；采购情绪指数为2.80，环比上升0.11。SMM A00铝报23,340元/吨，较前一交易日下跌420元/吨，对2602合约贴水180元/吨，较前一交易日扩大30元/吨。上周五，华中地区市场成交趋于平淡。随着春节临近，下游加工企业备货接近尾声，仅维持少量刚需采购，部分贸易商逢低补库。持货商年底回款意愿较前一交易日有所减弱，市场整体活跃度不高。实际成交价对中原价格贴水20元/吨至升水30元/吨。华中市场出货情绪指数为2.69，环比下降0.05；采购情绪指数为2.17，环比下降0.05。SMM中原价格收报23,240元/吨，较前一交易日下跌400元/吨，对2602合约贴水280元/吨，较前一交易日扩大50元/吨。豫沪价差为-100元/吨，较前一交易日收窄20元/吨。

再生铝原料：上周五，原铝现货价格延续前一日回调走势，SMM A00现货收报23,140元/吨。废铝价格上周五整体持稳或小幅跟跌。打包易拉罐废铝主要报价区间为16,700-17,150元/吨（不含税），破碎生铝（按铝含量计价）主要报价区间为18,900-19,600元/吨（不含税）。A00铝与废铝价差方面：2月6日，佛山地区A00铝与无涂层的混合型材废铝价差为3,360元/吨，佛山地区A00铝与破碎生铝价差为2,554元/吨。近期，受回收政策直接影响，加之高铝价背景下废铝价格被动跟涨，市场呈现“有价无市”局面。相关省份的废铝利用企业被迫减产或停产，下游采购情绪明显受抑，基本维持按需采购。预计下周废铝价格将维持高位运行，破碎生铝（按铝含量计价）主流价格区间或在19,000-19,800元/吨（不含税）。节前，安徽、河南、河北等地区环保相关管控措施频出，叠加铝价高企，对废铝价格形成底部支撑；但需求受抑迫使废铝利用企业和废铝货场提前进入假期。“有价无市”格局短期内难以改变，整体买卖双方博弈仍在继续。需密切关注下游加工企业停复产及开工率情况、各地环保措施执行进展，警惕铝价若再度回调，废铝市场成交或持续清淡。

再生铝合金：期货方面，铝合金2603合约开盘报21,945元/吨，日内呈现冲高回落、震荡下行态势。早盘价格受情绪修复影响小幅反弹，但在22,000-22,150元/吨区间遭遇明显阻力，未能有效站稳。午后随多头加速减仓，价格逐步回落下探前低区域。整体来看，短期反弹动能仍显不足，期价仍处于高位回调后的弱势震荡阶段，资金以减仓观望为主。现货市场方面，A00铝价较前一交易日下跌200元/吨至23,140元/吨，SMM ADC12价格小幅下跌50元/吨至23,550元/吨。上周五，再生铝市场报价有所分化，部分企业选择持稳观望，另有部分企业下调报价约100元/吨。在价格下跌带动下，下游采购以逢低补库为主，成交活跃度较前期略有改善。供应端，随着春节临近，再生铝厂假期生产安排逐步明确。多数企业计划于2月5日至13日期间停产放假，节后复工时间主要集中在正月初八以后或元宵节后。预计停产天数在8-20天，平均停产时长同比延长约2天。停产时间拉长，一方面源于近期铝价波动加剧，另一方面也受到下游需求整体偏弱，以及政策趋严、环保相关管控持续的影响。整体来看，下游需求继续收缩，价格基本面支撑边际减弱。节前再生铝合金价格预计将维持高位弱势震荡，价格重心小幅回调。

铝市综述：宏观层面，美国对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征关税的威胁，将扰乱全球贸易流动并抑制风险偏好，对铝价形成压制。供应端，国内外电解铝新投产能持续放量，日均产量维持增势，供应压力不减。需求端，市场已进入春节前淡季，下游加工企业逐步放假，开工率下降，消费端表现明显走弱。当前铝锭社会库存累库速度加快，市场预期节后库存峰值将创多年新高。可见的库存压力正逐渐成为压制铝价的关键现实因素。综合来看，受前期宏观压制因素影响，大量资金获利离场，铝价下跌伴随持仓量减少。但随后由于贵金属未进一步下行，铝价随之企稳。短期来看，铝价预计将进入震荡整理阶段。

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.