After a year marked by sharp monthly swings, global metals prices are showing signs of settling into a steadier range. The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index edged up by 0.5 per cent in November, following a much stronger 6 per cent rise in October and a 4 per cent gain over the third quarter of 2025. Taken together, the moves suggest momentum has cooled, but not reversed.
The index, compiled by the Washington-based World Bank Group, tracks six nonferrous metals - aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc - along with iron ore. According to the bank, recent gains have been underpinned by resilient demand and growing concerns over supply, particularly in copper.
Looking ahead, the World Bank sees little reason for sharp corrections in the near term. “Prices for most base metals are expected to firm further in 2026 and 2027 as modest demand growth coincides with tightening supply conditions,” it said, while cautioning that price stability is not guaranteed.
To know about 2026 aluminium industry trend, visit: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026.
Volatility remains a possibility over the next two years. “While a range of upside risks could push metal prices above baseline projections—including possible production disruptions, new trade restrictions, and a faster than expected expansion of data centers - the overall balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.”
The bank warned that weaker-than-expected growth in major economies continues to pose the most significant threat to metals demand, potentially limiting further price gains.
Aluminium, copper and tin lead expected gains
Among the seven metals covered by the index, the World Bank expects aluminium, nickel, tin and copper to post the strongest price increases over the next two years. Copper and tin are projected to reach new record highs in nominal US dollar terms, reflecting persistent supply constraints and steady end-use demand.
Overall, the institution forecasts that its base metal price index will rise by nearly 2 per cent across 2026 and 2027. Supply-side pressures are expected to remain most pronounced in the aluminium, copper and tin markets.
“Subdued global growth, including in China, may temper the pace of demand expansion,” the World Bank added.
Iron ore stands apart from the broader metals complex. The World Bank expects prices to decline further in 2026 and 2027, falling below 2019 levels. The outlook reflects slowing steel production in China, which has been on a downward trend in recent months.
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