When Century Aluminum Company finally shut the ledger on 2025, the numbers told only one part of the story. The other half of Century Aluminum’s 2025 tale has been written in transformer failures, hurricanes, inventory write-downs and energy volatility. It was a year in which aluminium prices and regional premiums lifted revenue, yet operational shocks repeatedly tugged earnings back down. The result was a financial performance that captured both the resilience and fragility of an American primary aluminium producer operating in a volatile global metals market.

For the full year, Century generated net sales of USD 2.53 billion, up 13.96 per cent from approximately USD 2.22 billion in 2024. Higher realised aluminium prices and stronger regional premiums helped offset weaker shipment volumes. On revenue alone, the year suggested steady footing.

For the full year 2025, shipments of primary aluminum decreased by 5 per cent. The company shipped 647,112 tonnes in 2025 compared to 677,967 tonnes in 2024.

The bottom line, however, told a more sobering tale. Reported net income attributable to Century stockholders came in at USD 41.8 million — a USD 295 million decline from the prior year (USD 336.8 million in 2024).

Strip away those one-offs, and the picture shifts. Adjusted net income reached USD 253.8 million, more than doubling from USD 101.4 million in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to USD 425.1 million. Looking at these figures, it seems that beneath the operational and price point volatility, Century’s core operating performance improved meaningfully in an inflationary pricing environment, wherein the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price inflated over the USD 300 per tonne bracket.

The Fourth Quarter came out stable, tackling all the stress beneath

The final quarter of 2025 encapsulated the year’s duality. With a total shipment of 140,257 tonnes in Q4’26 (down from 162,442 tonnes during the same period last year), net sales of USD 633.7 million marked a slight sequential increase and were up roughly 0.4 per cent year-on-year, again supported by pricing. Where LME price averaged at USD 2846 per tonne during Q4, 2026, it averaged at USD 2601 per tonne during the concluding 3 months of 2024. Reported net income for Q4 was just USD 1.8 million, or USD 0.02 per diluted share.

On an adjusted basis, the quarter looked materially stronger. Adjusted net income stood at USD 128.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached USD 170.6 million. Higher lagged LME prices and healthy delivery premiums provided tailwinds, alongside improved cost performance at Mt. Holly.

But volumes told a different story. Primary aluminium shipments in Q4 fell 14 per cent from the third quarter. The culprit was an outage at the Grundartangi smelter in Iceland, where equipment failure forced production idling and constrained output during a critical stretch of the year.

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Operational hits that mattered in 2026

Century’s 2025 was shaped by tangible, real-world disruptions like theequipment failure at Grundartangi, which weighed directly on shipments and sequential earnings comparisons. At the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa introduced recovery costs and operational interruptions that had ripple effect on the financials.

Meanwhile, the Hawesville, Kentucky, inventory write-down (tied to a facility idled since 2022) continued to leave its imprint on reported results. Unrealised losses on forward derivatives and higher share-based compensation expenses further dampened GAAP earnings.

Individually, each of these may have appeared manageable. Collectively, they compressed reported profitability and explained much of the divergence between headline net income and adjusted performance metrics.

Investors treated Century’s performance with cautious calibration. The company remains one of the more volatile names in the metals space, sensitive to aluminium pricing, energy inputs and US. regional premiums.

Yet the year was not without strategic validation. B. Riley raised its price target, citing Century’s repositioning and asset strategy as constructive steps. Central to that narrative was the sale of the Hawesville facility to TeraWulf and its transition to new industrial use, which analysts believe could unlock latent value and reduce legacy drag.

Turning points beyond the turbulence

While 2025 was operationally turbulent, it also laid the groundwork for structural recalibration.

Century advanced a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium aimed at building a new primary aluminium smelter in Oklahoma, positioned to be the first such US facility since 1980.

Closer to home, the planned restart of more than 50,000 tonnes of idled production at Mt. Holly suggests a near-term capacity lift anchored in existing infrastructure rather than speculative expansion.

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Century Aluminum’s 2026 outlook

Century Aluminum expects primary aluminium shipments of approximately 630,000 tonnes in 2026, an increase over 2025 levels. That growth is tied to the ramp-up at Mt. Holly and the earlier-than-anticipated production resumption at Grundartangi, rather than greenfield output.

For the first quarter of 2026, Century guided adjusted EBITDA to a range of USD 215 million to USD 235 million, supported by stronger lagged LME pricing and regional delivery premiums. At the same time, management acknowledged that energy price spikes — such as those experienced during Winter Storm Fern — could subtract tens of millions from quarterly earnings, underscoring how exposed smelting economics remain to power markets.

Full-year capital expenditures are projected at roughly USD 115 million to USD 125 million, including about USD 45 million allocated to fully restore the final 90 pots at Mt. Holly. The focus is on strengthening existing assets rather than stretching the balance sheet.

Notably, guidance excludes certain Iceland transformer replacement costs that are expected to be largely covered by insurance, adding a layer of contingency to projections.

Analyst expectations

Wall Street sentiment entering 2026 leans constructive. Consensus ratings skew toward Buy, with average price targets in the low-to-mid USD 50s and around USD 53 across select forecasts. The implied upside is moderate rather than aggressive.

BMO Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating and raised its price target, highlighting Mt. Holly’s restart and anticipated EBITDA growth as drivers of improved free cash flow. The brokerage has noted that Century trades at discounts to spot EBITDA multiples, suggesting potential re-rating if operational targets are delivered.

Broader forecasts similarly point to solid buy-side support with limited overt sell-side pessimism. Confidence rests on Century’s cost structure, premium realisation and volume recovery, even as pricing remains externally determined.

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Drivers beyond yearly guidance

Beyond immediate forecasts, two structural themes will shape 2026.

First, US regional premiums and tariff frameworks continue to support domestic aluminium pricing. These trade dynamics were instrumental in bolstering 2025 revenue and remain central to Century’s domestic expansion narrative.

Second, the joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium, targeting an eventual 750,000 tonnes per year of capacity, with Century holding a 40 per cent stake, provides a long-term growth horizon. While production is not expected before the end of the decade, the indication is already influencing how analysts frame the company’s trajectory.