Aluminium isn’t just another industrial staple, but the Earth’s most abundant metallic element, quietly making up nearly 8 per cent of the planet’s crust. And almost all of it starts with bauxite: a humble, rust-tinged ore rich in the aluminium minerals gibbsite, boehmite and diaspore. Look closely at the map, and a pattern emerges — the world’s richest bauxite belts lie in today’s tropics or regions shaped by tropical geology, from Guinea and Australia to Vietnam, Brazil and Jamaica. The scale is staggering. The US Geological Survey estimates that, as of 2024, the world is sitting on nearly 29 billion tonnes of known bauxite reserves.
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According to Fortune Business Insights, the global bauxite market size is estimated to be valued at USD 16.18 billion in 2025. According to AL Circle research, by 2030, a substantial increase is anticipated, with the market size projected to reach USD 19.6 billion at a CAGR of 2.41 per cent.
BMI revised its production growth forecast for Guinea for this year down to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent previously, with output now expected to reach 136 million tonnes.
The report stated that production growth in the market remains subject to risks, including possible delays, further policy changes, supply chain constraints, seasonal weather disruptions, labour unrest and infrastructure limitations. Over the long term, output is projected to reach 164 million tonnes by 2034, supported by Guinea’s large reserve base and ongoing investment from Mainland China.
Comparing the production and reserve, it is not a story of parity. Guinea is the rightful leader in the world bauxite industry and rightfully so, as the nation ranks top in terms of reserve (7.4 billion tonnes, accounting for 25 per cent of the world reserve) and production (145 million tonnes, accounting for close to 30 per cent of world production). However, for an emerging economy such as India, the production percentage surpasses the reserve. Domestic production (32 million tonnes in 2024) has started brushing against its geological limits and cumulative reserve of 650 million tonnes.
Revised 2025 outlook
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