
The US dollar started the week flat and registered some gains mid-week. The US dollar index jumped to 96.26, the highest since January 4 on January 16, after data showed that economic growth in Germany slowed in 2018.
LME aluminium started the week at the lowest in month at US$ 1775.5 per tonne and regained some losses over the week. The contract saw another low trading day on January 17 and closed at US$ 1804 per tonne. After closing Thursday’s trading lower, LME aluminium traded rangebound and continued upward overnight. The contract rose to hit the 20-day moving average, or US$1,856 per tonne, buoyed by higher prices of crude oil. The contract wrapped up trading at US$ 1851 on Friday. The contract is likely to trade at US$1,810-1,865 per tonne in the coming week.
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As on January 18, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1850 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1851 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1857 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1858 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 1985 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 1990 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1303475 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1034850 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 268625 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1858 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange started the week at US$ 1953 per tonne and struggled through the week. The contract closed Friday morning trading at US$ 1967 per tonne.
The SHFE 1903 and 1902 contracts failed to see substantial gains over the week considering the weak fundamentals. Both the contracts are expected to trade weak in the short term. At the end of the week, SHFE 1903 contract wrapped up the trading day 0.3% higher at RMB 13,395 per tonne and SHFE 1902 contract closed at RMB 13,375 per tonne.
We see the contracts trading at RMB13,350-13,450 per tonne in the coming week with spot discounts at RMB 70-30 per tonne.
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