
The US dollar dropped to the lowest in more than one week on Monday against a basket of currencies. The US dollar continued a six-day losing streak, as investors monitored US-China trade and data releases. Friday saw some gains on the index. LME aluminium gained 1.8% to become the outperformer on Monday. LME aluminium continued its gain on the second day of the week. Three-month LME aluminium also reached three-week highs on Tuesday but slipped to its lowest since November 26 on Friday at US$1741/t. LME cash settlement price traded within a range of US$ 1750.5 – 1802 per tonne. After that the contract continued to slow down since Tuesday night reaching the lowest during Friday’s closing. The spread between cash and three months aluminium was in a range of US$20.5 to 9.5/t backwardation over the week.

As on December 6, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1750 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1750.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1740 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1741 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1800 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1805 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased again to 1284300 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1135650 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 148650 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1747 per tonne.
SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
Benchmark aluminium price for SHFE (Shanghai Future Exchange) dropped to US$ 1989 per tonne on Friday December 6, 2019.
The build of long positions accounted for gain in SHFE aluminium this week, as falling social inventories domestically improved market sentiment. The most-liquid SHFE 2001 contract fell below the 60-day moving average in the beginning of the week and continued to gain during the rest of the week. A smaller weekly decline in social inventories of primary aluminium grew concerns about weaker demand and prompted investors to cover their long position, which sent the most-liquid SHFE contract to a low of RMB13,840 per tonne on Friday.
Prices will be underpinned and rangebound if primary aluminium inventories continue to shrink. The key RMB 14,000 per tonne level will be watched in the near term. LME aluminium is likely to move within a range of US$ 1750 to 1800 per tonne.
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