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17 NOVEMBER 2018 AL CIRCLE

Weak fundamentals put pressure on both LME and SHFE over the week; no significant upward room likely in next week

EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

The US dollar held steady against a currency basket while the pound dipped amid uncertainty over Brexit issues.

LME aluminium continued to trade weakly over the weak. The contract saw a trading range of US$1,914-1,934 per tonne.  The LME aluminium contract started the week at US$1,934 per tonne and continued its downward trend with the US dollar holding steady against a currency basket and in absence of strong market fundamentals. The contract tried to regain some losses but failed to break resistance at the 60-day moving average.  LME aluminium wrapped up Friday’s trading at US$ 1917 per tonne.  The contract is trading at a level last seen in August 2017.

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As on November 16, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1913.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1914 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1930.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1931.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2000 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2005 per tonne. 

The LME aluminium opening stock rose to 1066350 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 764600 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 301750 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1944 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend 

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange also followed the same downward pattern over the week. The contract started the week at US$ 1986 per tonne and wrapped up the week’s trading at US$ 1968 per tonne.  The contract saw a close trading range of US$ 1967-1,986 per tonne without much upward room. 

The SHFE 1901 contract also rebounded from the day’s lows of RMB 13,710 per tonne to end the trading day higher at RMB 13,785 per tonne. But the gains were moderate and the contract remained under pressure from the five-day moving average. The contract then tested pressure at the RMB 13,780 per tonne level last night.

Weak fundamentals weighed the SHFE 1901 contract below the daily moving average and settled it lower over the week with occasional rebounding. The contract traded within a range of RMB13,700-13,900 per tonne over the week. Spot discounts ranged between RMB 40 to RMB 60 per tonne.

We see no significant upward room for LME and SHFE aluminium next week. The contracts will continue to trade lower under strong US dollar and low downstream consumption.

Tagged with:

Aluminium Price LME

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EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

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