The 730,000t question: Can NALCO and GAC rescue a faltering alumina market?

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As the 2026 primary aluminium production navigates through a rocky course, the global alumina production map is being redrawn by the respective geopolitical factors. The data accumulated by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) depicted drastic drops in the cumulative alumina production volume across the world in April 2026, exhibiting a turbulent market environment.

Global alumina production in April 2026 stood at 11.92 million tonnes, which recorded a month-on-month decline of 5.74 per cent from 12.65 million tonnes produced in March 2025. Looking at the figure closely, a year-on-year drop of 2.59 per cent from the production volume of 12.24 million tonnes can be noticed as well.

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The global alumina market in 2025 did not experience a rapid demand growth but rather a recalibration. New refining capacities in countries such as India, Indonesia and Guinea accelerated production growth, pushing global alumina output close to 143.5 million tonnes and creating a modest market surplus. At the same time, governments increasingly treated alumina as a strategic upstream resource, prioritising domestic refining and value addition over raw bauxite exports.

However, is that trend still continuing in 2026, amid the market turbulence owing to the Mozal power deadlock, the Middle East conflict, and the nearly stagnant alumina prices?

What is driving the production decline?

As the primary aluminium production undergoes a challenging phase marked by geopolitical and energy crises, a ripple effect has spread across the alumina industry as well.